- The Penn State is a -17.5 point favorite vs. Illinois
- The Illinois vs. Penn State Total(Over/Under): 47.5 points
- TV Channel: NBC
The Illinois Fighting Illini (4-0) visit Beaver Stadium to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0) on Sep. 28 in University Park, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.
Penn State is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -17.5 (-115).
The Illinois vs. Penn State Over/Under is 47.5 total points.
Bet now on Penn State vs Illinois & all NCAAF games with BetMGM
Illinois vs. Penn State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Illinois | +17.5 -105 | 47.5 -105 | +600 |
| Penn State | -17.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -900 |
Illinois vs Penn State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 89.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Illinois and Penn State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Illinois vs Penn State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Penn State will cover the spread with 66.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Penn State vs Illinois and all games with BetMGM
Illinois Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Illinois has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+5.95 Units / 117% ROI)
- Illinois have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Illinois have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.40 Units / 10% ROI)
Penn State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- Penn State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Penn State has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+1.80 Units / 1% ROI)
- Penn State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- Penn State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Illinois players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Illinois Player Prop Bets Today
- Pat Bryant has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Luke Altmyer has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Luke Altmyer has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.65 Units / 165% ROI)
- Kaden Feagin has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Luke Altmyer has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Penn State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Penn State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Drew Allar has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- Nicholas Singleton has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- Tyler Warren has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Drew Allar has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Kaytron Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Illinois is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 68.18% ROI).
Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Penn State is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State
Illinois is 10-4 (.714) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: .597
Illinois is 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: .619
Illinois is 9-2 (.818) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .632
Illinois is 10-1 (.909) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .762
Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois
Penn State is 6-3 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .535
Penn State is 13-2 (.867) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-27th-best in FBS; Average: .685
Penn State is 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season– 12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .719
Penn State is 6-2 (.750) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .547
Matchup Notes for Illinois vs. Penn State
Penn State’s TEs has 20 receptions in 3 games (6.7 per game) this season — 2nd-best among Big Ten TEs. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 1.7 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.
Penn State’s WRs has gained 506 yards on 24 receptions (21.1 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed 14.6 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.
Penn State’s WRs has gained 506 yards on 24 receptions (21.1 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois’s TEs has 7 receptions in 4 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 14.0 receptions per game this season — 5th-best among Big Ten defenses.
Illinois’s TEs has 7 receptions in 4 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 14.0 receptions per game this season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois’s TEs has 7 receptions in 4 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed 7.0 receptions per game to TEs this season — 2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends
Illinois’s TEs has 7 receptions in 4 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 14.0 receptions per game this season — 5th-best among Big Ten defenses.
Illinois’s TEs has 7 receptions in 4 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 14.0 receptions per game this season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois’s TEs has 7 receptions in 4 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed 7.0 receptions per game to TEs this season — 2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Illinois’s WRs has 57 receptions this season — 5th-most among Big Ten WRs. Penn State’s defense has allowed 21 receptions to WRs this season — T-2nd-fewest among FBS defenses.
Illinois’s TEs have just 16.8 receiving yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 144.3 receiving yards per game this season — 22nd-best among FBS defenses.
Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends
Penn State WRs have averaged 21.1 yards per reception (506 yards/24 catches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.5
Penn State WRs have averaged 21.1 yards per reception (506 yards/24 catches) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.8
Penn State WRs have averaged 23.3 yards per reception (396 yards/17 catches) in the 1st half this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.2
Penn State TEs have been targeted 32 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams
Penn State TEs have caught 19 touchdown passes since the 2023 season– most among Big Ten Teams
Illinois Fighting Illini Defensive Stats & Trends
Illinois has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 121 rushes this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 25.7
Illinois has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 121 rushes this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 35.6
Illinois defense allowed 2 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down last week– most in the Big Ten
Illinois has allowed 19 first down receptions in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most in the Big Ten
Illinois has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 9 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 11%.
Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Stats & Trends
Penn State allowed a Completion Pct of just 15% (2 completions/13 attempts) last week– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%
Penn State allowed opponents to catch just 2 of 12 passes (17% Reception Pct) last week– best in FBS; Average: 61%
Penn State allowed a Completion Pct of just 15% (2 completions/13 attempts) last week– best in FBS; Average: 60%
Penn State has sacked opposing QBs on 13% of pass attempts (54/422) since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 8%
Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 8%
Bet now on Penn State vs Illinois and all games with BetMGM
More College Football Betting at BetMGM
BetMGM is the best online sportsbook for college football betting.
Whether you’re a first-time bettor checking out the best sportsbook promos, a casual fan betting on Georgia football national championship odds, Michigan football odds, or Ohio State playoff odds, or a longtime diehard breaking down trends for live sports betting, there are entertainment options for everyone.
Visit the sportsbook today to place a college football bet online!
