Kansas vs Baylor Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 14

Baylor head coach Dave Aranda yells from the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Albany in Waco, Texas, Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/LM Otero)
(AP Photo/LM Otero)
  • Kansas is a -1.5 point favorite vs. Baylor
  • Kansas vs. Baylor Total (Over/Under): 61.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN2

The Kansas Jayhawks (5-6) visit McLane Stadium to take on the Baylor Bears (7-4) on Nov. 30 in Waco, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Kansas is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Kansas vs. Baylor Over/Under is 61.5 total points.

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Kansas vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Kansas-1.5 -11061.5 -110-125
Baylor +1.5 -11061.5 -110+105

Kansas vs Baylor Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Baylor will win this game with 54.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Kansas and Baylor, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Kansas vs Baylor Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Baylor will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Kansas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.35 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Kansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.05 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Kansas have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Kansas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Kansas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.75 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Baylor have covered the Spread in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 39% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Kansas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Kansas Player Prop Bets Today

  • Luke Grimm has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.05 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Jalon Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Jalon Daniels has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Devin Neal has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Lawrence Arnold has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Baylor players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Baylor Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Josh Cameron has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Hal Presley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Monaray Baldwin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Bryson Washington has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Kansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kansas is 5-6 against the spread this college football season (-1.65 Units / -13.58% ROI).

  • Kansas is 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.3 Units / -35.93% ROI
  • Kansas is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
  • Kansas is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor is 8-3 against the spread this college football season (+4.7 Units / 38.84% ROI).

  • Baylor is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 10.05% ROI
  • Baylor is 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
  • Baylor is 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI

Kansas: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

Kansas is 3-6 (.333) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .532

Kansas is 12-3 (.800) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .589

Kansas is 9-8 (.529) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .427

Kansas is 1-5 (.167) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .474

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Kansas

Baylor is undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .737

Baylor is 1-8 (.111) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .399

Baylor is 2-7 (.222) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: .504

Baylor is 2-7 (.222) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .525

Matchup Notes for Kansas vs. Baylor

Baylor’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.9% of 331 attempts this season — T-12th-best among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts this season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Baylor’s WRs has gained 1,890 yards on 131 receptions (14.4 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big 12 WRs. Kansas’s defense has allowed 12.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.9% of 331 attempts this season — T-12th-best among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts this season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.5% of 594 attempts since the 2023 season — 7th-best among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kansas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.5% of 594 attempts since the 2023 season — 7th-best among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas’s WRs has gained 3,812 yards on 234 receptions (16.3 YPR) since the 2023 season — best among Big 12 WRs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kansas Offensive Stats & Trends

Kansas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.5% of 594 attempts since the 2023 season — 7th-best among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kansas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.5% of 594 attempts since the 2023 season — 7th-best among FBS offenses. Baylor’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas’s WRs has gained 3,812 yards on 234 receptions (16.3 YPR) since the 2023 season — best among Big 12 WRs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kansas’s TEs has gained 915 yards on 69 receptions (13.3 YPR) since the 2023 season — best among Big 12 TEs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas has gained 5,346 yards on 364 receptions (14.7 YPR) since the 2023 season — best among Big 12 skill players. Baylor’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends

Baylor’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.9% of 331 attempts this season — T-12th-best among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts this season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Baylor’s WRs has gained 1,890 yards on 131 receptions (14.4 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big 12 WRs. Kansas’s defense has allowed 12.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.9% of 331 attempts this season — T-12th-best among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.1% of attempts this season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.5% of 773 attempts since the 2023 season — T-35th-best among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.4% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Baylor has gained 2,642 yards on 200 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — T-5th-best among Big 12 skill players. Kansas’s defense has allowed 12.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas Jayhawks Defensive Stats & Trends

Kansas allowed 11.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (22 yards / 2 touches) in the Red Zone last week– worst in the Big 12; Average: 3.2

Kansas’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 19% of PATs since the 2023 season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%

Kansas’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 19% of PATs since the 2023 season– highest in the Big 12; Average: 8%

Kansas tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 13 rushing attempts (31% TFL%) last week– best in the Big 12; Average: 16%.

Kansas has allowed 4.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (272 yards / 64 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 5.6

Baylor Bears Defensive Stats & Trends

Baylor allowed no passing TDs (25 pass attempts) last week– T-best in the Big 12; Average: 20.3

Baylor has allowed a Completion Pct of just 17% (1 completions/6 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14.9

Baylor tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 26 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) last week– worst in the Big 12; Average: 16%.

Baylor has allowed first downs on 17% of pass attempts on 3rd and short this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 49%


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