Kansas State vs Houston Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Nov 01, 2024, 3:24 PM

min read

Houston quarterback Donovan Smith (1) looks for a receiver as Central Florida defensive end Tre'Mon Morris-Brash (3) gives chase during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

Kansas State is a -12.5 point favorite vs. Houston
Kansas State vs. Houston Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
TV Channel: FOX

The Kansas State Wildcats (7-1) visit TDECU Stadium to take on the Houston Cougars (3-5) on Nov. 2 in Houston, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Kansas State is a betting favorite in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-115).

The Kansas State vs. Houston Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

Bet now on Houston vs Kansas State & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Kansas State vs. Houston Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Kansas State	-12.5 -115	46.5 -110	-550
Houston	+12.5 -105	46.5 -110	+400

Kansas State vs Houston Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Kansas State will win this game with 81.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Kansas State and Houston, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Kansas State vs Houston Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Houston will cover the spread with 51.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Houston vs Kansas State and all games with BetMGM

Get up to $1,500 First Bet Offer

Kansas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Kansas State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Kansas State has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+1.75 Units / 4% ROI)
Kansas State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.20 Units / 8% ROI)
Kansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.00 Units / 15% ROI)

Houston Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Houston has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI)
Houston has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)
Houston have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 28% ROI)
Houston has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.60 Units / 22% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Kansas State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Kansas State Player Prop Bets Today

Keagan Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Avery Johnson has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 79% ROI)
Avery Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Avery Johnson has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 91% ROI)
DJ Giddens has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Houston players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Houston Player Prop Best Bets Today

Re’Shaun Sanford II has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Donovan Smith has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Stacy Sneed has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Stephon Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Donovan Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)

Kansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kansas State is 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.45 Units / -28.16% ROI).

Kansas State is 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.2 Units / 18.08% ROI
Kansas State is 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
Kansas State is 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI

Houston Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Houston is 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.35 Units / -4.02% ROI).

Houston is 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 25.91% ROI
Houston is 1-7 when betting the Over for -6.7 Units / -76.14% ROI
Houston is 7-1 when betting the Under for +5.9 Units / 67.05% ROI

Kansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Houston

Kansas State is 10-2 (.833) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .495

Kansas State is 15-5 (.750) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .610

Kansas State is 16-4 (.800) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .638

Kansas State is 16-4 (.800) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .638

Houston: Keys to the Game vs. Kansas State

Houston is 3-12 (.200) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst in FBS; Average: .447

Houston is 3-9 (.250) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .493

Houston is 3-11 (.214) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .475

Houston is 3-11 (.214) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 18th-worst in FBS; Average: .424

Matchup Notes for Kansas State vs. Houston

Houston’s QBs has thrown for 1,227 passing yards in 8 games (just 153.4 YPG) this season — 9th-worst among FBS teams. Kansas State’s defense has allowed 245.1 passing yards per game this season — 28th-worst among FBS defenses.

Houston’s offense has thrown for 1,227 passing yards in 8 games (just 153.4 YPG) this season — 9th-worst among FBS offenses. Kansas State’s defense has allowed 245.1 passing yards per game this season — 28th-worst among FBS defenses.

Houston have just 153.4 receiving yards per game this season — 9th-worst among FBS skill players. Kansas State’s defense has allowed 245.1 receiving yards per game this season — 28th-worst among FBS defenses.

Kansas State’s TEs has gained 288 yards on 30 receptions (just 9.6 YPR) this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 TEs. Houston’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

Kansas State’s TEs has 30 receptions in 8 games (3.8 per game) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 TEs. Houston’s defense has allowed just 16.6 receptions per game this season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas State’s TEs has 30 receptions in 8 games (3.8 per game) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 TEs. Houston’s defense has allowed just 16.6 receptions per game this season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.

Kansas State Offensive Stats & Trends

Kansas State TEs have caught 8 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– most among Power Conference Teams

Kansas State TEs have caught 17 touchdown passes in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Kansas State TEs have caught 10 touchdown passes this season– most among Power Conference Teams

Kansas State TEs have caught 8 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– most among Big 12 Teams

Houston Offensive Stats & Trends

Houston Skill Players have averaged just 9.9 yards per reception (1,227 yards/124 catches) this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 12.4

Houston WRs have averaged just 10.7 yards per reception (864 yards/81 catches) this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 13.7

Houston TEs have just one touchdown on 38 receptions since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.5

Houston WRs have averaged just 9.4 yards per reception (217 yards/23 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 13.5

Kansas State Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Kansas State has allowed 96.8 rushing yards per game (774/8) this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 150.6

Kansas State allowed first downs on 3% of rush attempts in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 18%

Kansas State opponents averaged 8.0 Passing Attempts per TD (40 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.9

Kansas State has allowed 2.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (240 yards / 89 touches) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 3.8

Kansas State allowed 2.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (108 yards / 50 touches) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 3.8

Houston Cougars Defensive Stats & Trends

Houston allowed 14.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (14 yards / 1 touches) in the Red Zone last week– worst in the Big 12; Average: 3.9

Houston has allowed first downs on 57% of pass attempts in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 23%

Houston has allowed a Completion Pct of just 37% (7 completions/19 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 60%

Houston has allowed a Completion Pct of just 20% (2 completions/10 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Houston has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 17 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 11%.