Kentucky vs Tennessee Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Nov 01, 2024, 3:23 PM

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Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava (8) throws to a receiver during warmups before an NCAA college football game against Vanderbilt Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023, in Knoxville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Wade Payne)

(AP Photo/Wade Payne)

Tennessee is a -16.5 point favorite vs. Kentucky
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
TV Channel: SECN

The Kentucky Wildcats (3-5) visit Neyland Stadium to take on the Tennessee Volunteers (6-1) on Nov. 2 in Knoxville, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT.

Tennessee is a betting favorite in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -16.5 (-105).

The Kentucky vs. Tennessee Over/Under is 45.5 total points.

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Kentucky vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Kentucky	+16.5 -115	45.5 -110	+550
Tennessee	-16.5 -105	45.5 -110	-800

Kentucky vs Tennessee Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Tennessee will win this game with 87.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Kentucky and Tennessee, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Kentucky vs Tennessee Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kentucky will cover the spread with 89.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Kentucky Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Kentucky has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+6.35 Units / 96% ROI)
Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 38% ROI)
Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.45 Units / 30% ROI)
Kentucky has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+2.95 Units / 8% ROI)
Kentucky has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)

Tennessee Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Tennessee has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.45 Units / 0% ROI)
Tennessee has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.80 Units / 29% ROI)
Tennessee have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 10 games (+2.05 Units / 17% ROI)
Tennessee have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Tennessee have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.55 Units / 18% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Kentucky players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Kentucky Player Prop Bets Today

Brock Vandagriff has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Brock Vandagriff has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 54% ROI)
Barion Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Dane Key has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Tennessee players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Tennessee Player Prop Best Bets Today

Dylan Sampson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Nico Iamaleava has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Squirrel White has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Dylan Sampson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Nico Iamaleava has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 50% ROI)

Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kentucky is 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Kentucky is 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.85 Units / -7.12% ROI
Kentucky is 2-6 when betting the Over for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI
Kentucky is 6-2 when betting the Under for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI

Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Tennessee is 5-2 against the spread this college football season (+2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI).

Tennessee is 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0% ROI
Tennessee is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
Tennessee is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI

Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Tennessee

Kentucky is 2-6 (.250) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .482

Kentucky is 4-5 (.444) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .677

Kentucky is 2-10 (.167) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-10th-worst in FBS; Average: .417

Kentucky is 3-9 (.250) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .494

Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. Kentucky

Tennessee is winless (0-1) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .414

Tennessee is 15-4 (.789) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .646

Tennessee is 15-2 (.882) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– 9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .680

Tennessee is undefeated (14-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .753

Matchup Notes for Kentucky vs. Tennessee

Tennessee’s RBs has just 0.0 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-worst among FBS RBs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-9th-best among FBS defenses.

Tennessee has averaged 12.9 yards after the catch this season — T-35th-best among FBS skill players. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 13.2 RAC this season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Tennessee’s RBs have just 14.9 receiving yards per game this season — 27th-worst among FBS RBs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 16.1 receiving yards per game to RBs this season — T-17th-best among FBS defenses.

Kentucky’s QBs has thrown for 1,329 passing yards in 8 games (just 166.1 YPG) this season — 12th-worst among FBS teams. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 180.0 passing yards per game this season — 21st-best among FBS defenses.

Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 1,329 passing yards in 8 games (just 166.1 YPG) this season — 11th-worst among FBS offenses. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 180.0 passing yards per game this season — 21st-best among FBS defenses.

Kentucky have just 166.1 receiving yards per game this season — 11th-worst among FBS skill players. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 180.0 receiving yards per game this season — 21st-best among FBS defenses.

Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends

Kentucky TEs have averaged 18.4 yards per reception (405 yards/22 catches) on 1st down since the 2023 season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 12.2

Kentucky TEs have caught just 43 of 82 passes (52% Reception Pct) since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 69%

Kentucky QBs have 10 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go this season– most among FBS Teams

Tennessee Offensive Stats & Trends

Tennessee RBs have averaged 211.6 rushing yards per game (1,481/7) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 127.0

Tennessee RBs have rushed for 6 TDs in the 1st quarter this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Tennessee WRs have averaged 26.4 yards per reception (132 yards/5 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.6

Tennessee WRs have averaged 26.4 yards per reception (132 yards/5 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.9

Tennessee RBs have averaged 187.6 rushing yards per game (3,753/20) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 125.7

Kentucky Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Kentucky sacked opposing QBs on 19% of pass attempts (5/26) last week– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 6%

Kentucky has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 7 of 163 attempts (4%) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 2%

Kentucky has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 27 of 163 attempts (17%) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 10%

Kentucky has sacked opponents 9 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most in the SEC

Kentucky’s opponents has attempted just 20.4 passes per game this season– lowest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 30.9

Tennessee Volunteers Defensive Stats & Trends

Tennessee opponents has averaged 50.8 Passing Attempts per TD (203 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22.9

Tennessee opponents has averaged 50.8 Passing Attempts per TD (203 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 21.3

Tennessee has allowed 4 touchdowns on 121 completions (30.2 Completions Per TD) this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 12.9

Tennessee has allowed 4.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (1,813 yards / 368 touches) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 6.8

Tennessee has allowed 4 rushing TDs on 247 carries (61.8 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best in the SEC; Average: 30.9