- Army is a -14.5 point favorite vs. Marshall
- Marshall vs. Army Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN
The Marshall Thundering Herd (10-3) visit Independence Stadium to take on the Army Black Knights (11-1) on Dec. 28 in Shreveport, LA. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:15pm EST.
Army is a betting favorite in the Independence Bowl, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-110).
The Marshall vs. Army Over/Under is 48.5 total points.
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Marshall vs. Army Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Marshall | +14.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +425 |
| Army | -14.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -550 |
Marshall vs Army Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Army will win this game with 75.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Marshall and Army, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Marshall vs Army Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Army will cover the spread with 73.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Marshall Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Marshall have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- Marshall have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Marshall has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Marshall has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Marshall has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Marshall Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Marshall is 11-1 against the spread this college football season (+9.9 Units / 68.75% ROI).
- Marshall is 9-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 29.58% ROI
- Marshall is 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
- Marshall is 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI
Army Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Army is 8-4 against the spread this college football season (+3.6 Units / 27.17% ROI).
- Army is 10-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.8 Units / 12.3% ROI
- Army is 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.32% ROI
- Army is 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.65 Units / -20.15% ROI
Marshall: Keys to the Game vs. Army
Marshall is undefeated (8-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .592
Marshall is undefeated (14-0) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .638
Marshall is 5-1 (.833) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– T-7th-best in FBS; Average: .434
Marshall is 9-2 (.818) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .482
Army: Keys to the Game vs. Marshall
Army is 11-1 (.917) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .525
Army is undefeated (10-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .612
Army is 11-1 (.917) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .582
Army is undefeated (10-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .635
Matchup Notes for Marshall vs. Army
Army’s TEs has 1 receptions in 7 games (just 0.1 per game) this season — worst among FBS TEs. Marshall’s defense has allowed just 16.8 receptions per game this season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
Army’s RBs has averaged 14.0 yards after the catch this season — 2nd-best among FBS RBs. Navy’s defense has allowed just 4.8 RAC to RBs this season — T-4th-best among FBS defenses.
Army’s TEs has 7 receptions in 16 games (just 0.4 per game) since the 2023 season — worst among FBS TEs. Marshall’s defense has allowed just 2.7 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.
Marshall’s WRs has gained 4,180 yards on 336 receptions (just 12.4 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-33rd-worst among FBS WRs. Army’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 5th-best among NonP5 defenses.
Marshall’s WRs has gained 4,180 yards on 336 receptions (just 12.4 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-33rd-worst among FBS WRs. Army’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.
Marshall’s offense has thrown for 2,354 passing yards in 13 games (just 181.1 YPG) this season — 21st-worst among FBS offenses. Army’s defense has allowed just 193.9 passing yards per game this season — 34th-best among FBS defenses.
Marshall Offensive Stats & Trends
Marshall’s WRs has gained 4,180 yards on 336 receptions (just 12.4 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-33rd-worst among FBS WRs. Army’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 5th-best among NonP5 defenses.
Marshall’s WRs has gained 4,180 yards on 336 receptions (just 12.4 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-33rd-worst among FBS WRs. Army’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.
Marshall’s offense has thrown for 2,354 passing yards in 13 games (just 181.1 YPG) this season — 21st-worst among FBS offenses. Army’s defense has allowed just 193.9 passing yards per game this season — 34th-best among FBS defenses.
Marshall’s QBs has thrown for 2,354 passing yards in 13 games (just 181.1 YPG) this season — 21st-worst among FBS teams. Army’s defense has allowed just 193.9 passing yards per game this season — 34th-best among FBS defenses.
Marshall have just 181.1 receiving yards per game this season — 21st-worst among FBS skill players. Army’s defense has allowed just 193.9 receiving yards per game this season — 34th-best among FBS defenses.
Army Offensive Stats & Trends
Army Skill Players have averaged just 4.8 receptions per game (57/12) this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.7
Army WRs have averaged 20.7 yards per reception (537 yards/26 catches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.3
Army Skill Players have been targeted 7.9 times per game (95/12) this season– lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.5
Army WRs have been targeted 6.9 times per game (158/23) since the 2023 season– 2nd-lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 20.7
Army has averaged 83.2 Passing Yards per game (998/12) this season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 226.8*
Marshall Thundering Herd Defensive Stats & Trends
Marshall has tackled opponents for a loss on 9 of 37 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.
Marshall has tackled opponents for a loss on 9 of 37 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– best in FBS; Average: 10%.
Marshall sacked opponents 7 times in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Marshall has tackled opponents for a loss on 13 of 67 rushing attempts (19% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 11%.
Marshall has tackled opponents for a loss on 28 of 135 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.
Army Black Knights Defensive Stats & Trends
Army has allowed 8 rushing TDs on 61 carries (7.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 4.6
Army has allowed 8 rushing TDs on 61 carries (7.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.3
Army has allowed first downs on 44% of rush attempts on 3rd and long this season– worst in FBS; Average: 16%
Army opponents has averaged 5.8 Passing Attempts per TD (70 Pass Attempts/12 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8
Army has allowed first downs on 44% of rush attempts on 3rd and long this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18%
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