Maryland vs Minnesota Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 9

BetMGM Betting Oct 24, 2024, 4:11 PM

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Minnesota wide receiver Daniel Jackson (9) in action against Purdue during the first half an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022, in Minneapolis. Purdue won 20-10. (AP Photo/Craig Lassig)

(AP Photo/Craig Lassig)

The Minnesota is a -4.5 point favorite vs. Maryland
The Maryland vs. Minnesota Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
TV Channel: FS1

The Maryland Terrapins (4-3) visit Huntington Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-3) on Oct. 26 in Minneapolis, MN. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Minnesota is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-105).

The Maryland vs. Minnesota Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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Maryland vs. Minnesota Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Maryland	+4.5 -115	46.5 -110	+145
Minnesota	-4.5 -105	46.5 -110	-175

Maryland vs Minnesota Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Minnesota will win this game with 62.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Maryland and Minnesota, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Maryland vs Minnesota Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Minnesota will cover the spread with 58.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Maryland Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Maryland has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
Maryland has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.70 Units / 18% ROI)
Maryland have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Maryland has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.30 Units / 9% ROI)

Minnesota Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Minnesota has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+4.95 Units / 11% ROI)
Minnesota have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.90 Units / 50% ROI)
Minnesota has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.55 Units / 27% ROI)
Minnesota has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.95 Units / 30% ROI)
Minnesota has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+2.05 Units / 4% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Maryland players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Maryland Player Prop Bets Today

Roman Hemby has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Roman Hemby has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kaden Prather has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Tai Felton has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Minnesota players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Minnesota Player Prop Best Bets Today

Darius Taylor has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Max Brosmer has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jameson Geers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Daniel Jackson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Elijah Spencer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Maryland Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Maryland is 4-3 against the spread this college football season (+0.65 Units / 8.39% ROI).

Maryland is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -8.86% ROI
Maryland is 6-1 when betting the Over for +4.9 Units / 63.64% ROI
Maryland is 1-6 when betting the Under for -5.6 Units / -72.73% ROI

Minnesota Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Minnesota is 5-1 against the spread this college football season (+3.85 Units / 49.68% ROI).

Minnesota is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 5.59% ROI
Minnesota is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
Minnesota is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI

Maryland: Keys to the Game vs. Minnesota

Maryland is undefeated (8-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .718

Maryland is 7-3 (.700) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .487

Maryland is 10-4 (.714) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .610

Maryland is 11-2 (.846) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: .644

Minnesota: Keys to the Game vs. Maryland

Minnesota is 2-8 (.200) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .460

Minnesota is 4-6 (.400) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-39th-worst in FBS; Average: .540

Minnesota is 6-10 (.375) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-38th-worst in FBS; Average: .485

Minnesota is 2-9 (.182) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 10th-worst in FBS; Average: .449

Matchup Notes for Maryland vs. Minnesota

Minnesota’s WRs has averaged just 11.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-19th-worst among FBS WRs. Maryland’s defense has allowed 12.2 RAC since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Minnesota’s WRs has averaged just 11.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten WRs. Maryland’s defense has allowed 12.2 RAC since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Minnesota’s WRs has averaged just 11.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-19th-worst among FBS WRs. Maryland’s defense has allowed 14.2 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

Maryland has gained 2,205 yards on 203 receptions (just 10.9 YPR) this season — T-26th-worst among FBS skill players. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-best among FBS defenses.

Maryland’s WRs has gained 1,625 yards on 140 receptions (just 11.6 YPR) this season — 25th-worst among FBS WRs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-best among P5 defenses.

Maryland’s WRs has gained 1,625 yards on 140 receptions (just 11.6 YPR) this season — 4th-worst among Big Ten WRs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big Ten defenses.

Maryland Offensive Stats & Trends

Maryland Skill Players have been targeted 21.3 times per game (149/7) in the 2nd half this season– highest among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.7

Maryland’s offense has thrown for 2,193 passing yards in 7 games (313.3 YPG) this season — 9th-best among FBS offenses. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 139.6 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Minnesota Offensive Stats & Trends

Minnesota’s WRs has averaged just 11.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten WRs. Maryland’s defense has allowed 14.2 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

Minnesota has averaged just 10.1 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among Power 5 skill players. Maryland’s defense has allowed 12.2 RAC since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Maryland Terrapins Defensive Stats & Trends

Maryland has tackled opponents for a loss on 2 of 12 rushing attempts (17% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-best in the Big Ten; Average: 6%.

Maryland has allowed 13.4 yards per completion (1,886 yards/141 completions) this season– 2nd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 10.8

Maryland has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (9 completions/22 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Maryland has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 7 of 242 attempts (3%) this season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1%

Maryland has allowed 236.0 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 145.6

Minnesota Golden Gophers Defensive Stats & Trends

Minnesota has not recorded a sack (51 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 14.4

Minnesota opponents has averaged 62.0 Passing Attempts per TD (186 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 24.9

Minnesota opponents has averaged 62.0 Passing Attempts per TD (186 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 21.6

Minnesota opponents has averaged 62.0 Passing Attempts per TD (186 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 23.2

Minnesota has not recorded a sack (51 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.9