Memphis vs West Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Frisco Bowl

BetMGM Betting Dec 12, 2024, 11:31 AM

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West Virginia head coach Neal Brown questions a call against his team during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Iowa State, Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, in Ames, Iowa. Iowa State 31-14. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Memphis is a -4 point favorite vs. West Virginia
Memphis vs. West Virginia Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The Memphis Tigers (10-2) visit Toyota Stadium to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers (6-6) on Dec. 17 in Frisco, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EST.

Memphis is a betting favorite in the Frisco Bowl, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).

The Memphis vs. West Virginia Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

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Memphis vs. West Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Memphis	-4 -110	58.5 -105	-200
West Virginia	+4 -110	58.5 -115	+165

Memphis vs West Virginia Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Memphis will win this game with 54.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Memphis and West Virginia, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Memphis vs West Virginia Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts West Virginia will cover the spread with 73.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Memphis Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Memphis has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.00 Units / 7% ROI)
Memphis have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.95 Units / 50% ROI)
Memphis has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 49% ROI)
Memphis has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.25 Units / 15% ROI)
Memphis have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)

West Virginia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

West Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.90 Units / 43% ROI)
West Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 29% ROI)
West Virginia has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
West Virginia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+1.95 Units / 15% ROI)
West Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+1.90 Units / 20% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Memphis players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Memphis Player Prop Bets Today

Roc Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Seth Henigan has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
Demeer Blankumsee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Seth Henigan has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for West Virginia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best West Virginia Player Prop Best Bets Today

Garrett Greene has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
CJ Donaldson Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Jahiem White has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 78% ROI)
Hudson Clement has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jaden Bray has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Memphis Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Memphis is 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.5 Units / 3.8% ROI).

Memphis is 9-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +7 Units / 8.7% ROI
Memphis is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
Memphis is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI

West Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

West Virginia is 5-7 against the spread this college football season (-2.7 Units / -20.38% ROI).

West Virginia is 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 6.14% ROI
West Virginia is 8-4 when betting the Over for +3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI
West Virginia is 4-8 when betting the Under for -4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI

Memphis: Keys to the Game vs. West Virginia

Memphis is 17-2 (.895) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .581

Memphis is 9-1 (.900) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .525

Memphis is 12-5 (.706) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .381

Memphis is undefeated (12-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .670

West Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Memphis

West Virginia is undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .611

West Virginia is undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .687

West Virginia is 12-4 (.750) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-28th-best in FBS; Average: .620

West Virginia is 8-2 (.800) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 6th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .522

Matchup Notes for Memphis vs. West Virginia

West Virginia has averaged 13.5 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big 12 skill players. Memphis’s defense has allowed 12.8 RAC since the 2023 season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.

West Virginia has 375 receptions in 25 games (just 15.0 per game) since the 2023 season — T-16th-worst among FBS skill players. Memphis’s defense has allowed 20.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.

West Virginia’s WRs has averaged 15.4 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big 12 WRs. Memphis’s defense has allowed 14.1 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Memphis’s QBs has thrown for 3,222 passing yards in 12 games (268.5 YPG) this season — 23rd-best among FBS teams. West Virginia’s defense has allowed 268.9 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Memphis’s WRs has averaged 14.0 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-26th-best among FBS WRs. West Virginia’s defense has allowed 15.0 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst among FBS defenses.

Memphis’s RBs has averaged just 6.4 yards after the catch this season — T-25th-worst among FBS RBs. West Virginia’s defense has allowed 14.1 RAC this season — 4th-worst among FBS defenses.

Memphis Offensive Stats & Trends

Memphis QBs have 32 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

Memphis’s RBs has averaged just 6.4 yards after the catch this season — T-25th-worst among FBS RBs. West Virginia’s defense has allowed 14.1 RAC this season — 4th-worst among FBS defenses.

West Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends

West Virginia Skill Players have caught just 1 of 10 passes (10% Reception Pct) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 65%

West Virginia’s WRs has 241 receptions in 25 games (just 9.6 per game) since the 2023 season — T-19th-worst among FBS WRs. Memphis’s defense has allowed 20.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Memphis Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Memphis has allowed 27.5 carries per game (330 carries / 12 games) this season– 2nd-lowest among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 37.3

Memphis has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 19 rushing attempts (5% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 19th-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

Memphis defense has allowed 104 completions for 20 or more yards since the 2023 season– 5th-most in FBS

Memphis has allowed 104 receptions for 20+ yards since the 2023 season– 5th-most in FBS

Memphis opponents has averaged 27.5 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/15 Passing TDs) this season– 29th-best in FBS; Average: 20.7

West Virginia Mountaineers Defensive Stats & Trends

West Virginia has allowed 4.8 touchdowns per interception (24 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6

West Virginia has sacked opposing QBs just once on 84 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.9

West Virginia has allowed 4.8 touchdowns per interception (24 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 1.7

West Virginia has not recorded a sack (41 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.3

West Virginia has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 17 of 360 attempts (5%) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%