Minnesota vs UCLA Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

BetMGM Betting Oct 11, 2024, 1:12 PM

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UCLA running back TJ Harden (25) runs during an NCAA college football game against Stanford, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, in Stanford, Calif. (AP Photo/Scot Tucker)

(AP Photo/Scot Tucker)

The Minnesota is a -5.5 point favorite vs. UCLA
The Minnesota vs. UCLA Total (Over/Under): 40.5 points
TV Channel: BTN

The Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-3) visit Rose Bowl to take on the UCLA Bruins (1-4) on Oct. 12 in Pasadena, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EDT.

Minnesota is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Minnesota vs. UCLA Over/Under is 40.5 total points.

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Minnesota vs. UCLA Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Minnesota	-5.5 -110	40.5 -110	-210
UCLA	+5.5 -110	40.5 -110	+170

Minnesota vs UCLA Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Minnesota will win this game with 65.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Minnesota and UCLA, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Minnesota vs UCLA Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCLA will cover the spread with 69.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Minnesota Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Minnesota has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 29% ROI)
Minnesota have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.70 Units / 28% ROI)
Minnesota has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.60 Units / 12% ROI)
Minnesota has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)
Minnesota have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.45 Units / 3% ROI)

UCLA Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

UCLA has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
UCLA has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.70 Units / 44% ROI)
UCLA has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.40 Units / 10% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Minnesota players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Minnesota Player Prop Bets Today

Daniel Jackson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jordan Nubin has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Max Brosmer has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Max Brosmer has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for UCLA players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UCLA Player Prop Best Bets Today

Ethan Garbers has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
TJ Harden has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Logan Loya has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
J. Michael Sturdivant has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Ethan Garbers has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.65 Units / 27% ROI)

Minnesota Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Minnesota is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 34.55% ROI).

Minnesota is 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -2.92% ROI
Minnesota is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -3.64% ROI
Minnesota is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -3.64% ROI

UCLA Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UCLA is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

UCLA is 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -23.95% ROI
UCLA is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
UCLA is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI

Minnesota: Keys to the Game vs. UCLA

Minnesota is 4-9 (.308) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-32nd-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Minnesota is 1-5 (.167) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-28th-worst in FBS; Average: .360

Minnesota is 2-8 (.200) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: .414

Minnesota is 4-8 (.333) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– 13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .537

UCLA: Keys to the Game vs. Minnesota

UCLA is 1-5 (.167) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .462

UCLA is 1-7 (.125) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

UCLA is 1-7 (.125) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-32nd-worst in FBS; Average: .284

UCLA is 1-8 (.111) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .465

Matchup Notes for Minnesota vs. UCLA

UCLA has gained 987 yards on 91 receptions (just 10.8 YPR) this season — T-29th-worst among FBS skill players. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 8.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.

UCLA’s TEs has 44 receptions in 18 games (just 2.4 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten TEs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 17.4 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Minnesota has 284 receptions in 19 games (just 14.9 per game) since the 2023 season — 17th-worst among FBS skill players. UCLA’s defense has allowed 22.4 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.

Minnesota has 284 receptions in 19 games (just 14.9 per game) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among Big Ten skill players. UCLA’s defense has allowed 22.4 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.

Minnesota’s WRs has 174 receptions in 19 games (just 9.2 per game) since the 2023 season — T-15th-worst among FBS WRs. UCLA’s defense has allowed 22.4 receptions per game since the 2023 season — worst among Big Ten defenses.

Minnesota Offensive Stats & Trends

Minnesota’s WRs has 174 receptions in 19 games (just 9.2 per game) since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst among Power 5 WRs. UCLA’s defense has allowed 22.4 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among P5 defenses.

Minnesota’s WRs has 174 receptions in 19 games (just 9.2 per game) since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst among Big Ten WRs. UCLA’s defense has allowed 22.4 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.

UCLA Offensive Stats & Trends

UCLA TEs have averaged 14.9 yards per reception (657 yards/44 catches) since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.8

UCLA TEs averaged 18.7 yards per reception (431 yards/23 catches) in the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.9

UCLA Skill Players have caught just 4 of 17 passes (23% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

UCLA Skill Players have caught just 4 of 17 passes (23% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone this season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 60%

Minnesota Golden Gophers Defensive Stats & Trends

Minnesota has not recorded a sack (47 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.2

Minnesota has not recorded a sack (47 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.5

Minnesota opponents has averaged 75.0 Passing Attempts per TD (150 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 21.7

Minnesota has not recorded a sack (47 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 14.1

Minnesota has allowed just 8.0 yards per completion (684 yards/86 completions) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.4

UCLA Bruins Defensive Stats & Trends

UCLA has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 12 of 84 attempts (14%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 7%

UCLA has allowed first downs on 50% of pass attempts on 3rd and long this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 26%

UCLA has allowed 4.0 touchdowns per interception (12 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.2

UCLA has allowed 10 rushing TDs on 89 carries (8.9 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 4.6

UCLA has tackled opponents for a loss on 25 of 89 rushing attempts (28% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 15%.