- Tennessee is a -23.5 point favorite vs. Mississippi St
- Mississippi State vs. Tennessee Total (Over/Under): 61.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN
The Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-7) visit Neyland Stadium to take on the Tennessee Volunteers (7-1) on Nov. 9 in Knoxville, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST.
Tennessee is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -23.5 (-110).
The Mississippi State vs. Tennessee Over/Under is 61.5 total points.
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Mississippi State vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Mississippi State | +23.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +1200 |
| Tennessee | -23.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -3000 |
Mississippi State vs Tennessee Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Tennessee will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Mississippi St and Tennessee, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Mississippi State vs Tennessee Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Mississippi State will cover the spread with 64.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Mississippi State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- Mississippi State have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.45 Units / 3% ROI)
Tennessee Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Tennessee has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- Tennessee has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.45 Units / 1% ROI)
- Tennessee has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Tennessee has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Mississippi State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mississippi State Player Prop Bets Today
- Kevin Coleman Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Johnnie Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Tennessee players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tennessee Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Dylan Sampson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Nico Iamaleava has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Dylan Sampson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Bru McCoy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Squirrel White has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi St is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.55 Units / 5.53% ROI).
- Mississippi State is 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.25 Units / -39.73% ROI
- Mississippi State is 7-2 when betting the Over for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI
- Mississippi State is 2-7 when betting the Under for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI
Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Tennessee is 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI).
- Tennessee is 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 0.09% ROI
- Tennessee is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Tennessee is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Tennessee
Mississippi State is 2-9 (.182) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .508
Mississippi State is 1-9 (.100) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .438
Mississippi State is 4-10 (.286) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .590
Mississippi State is 2-11 (.154) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .494
Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State
Tennessee is 16-3 (.842) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-10th-best in FBS; Average: .583
Tennessee is 6-3 (.667) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: .433
Tennessee is 7-2 (.778) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .584
Tennessee is 16-2 (.889) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-6th-best in FBS; Average: .609
Matchup Notes for Mississippi State vs. Tennessee
Tennessee’s WRs has averaged just 13.4 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among SEC WRs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 10.8 RAC since the 2023 season — 5th-best among SEC defenses.
Tennessee has gained 5,038 yards on 412 receptions (just 12.2 YPR) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among SEC skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 5th-best among SEC defenses.
Tennessee’s WRs has averaged just 13.4 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among SEC WRs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 10.8 RAC since the 2023 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State has averaged just 11.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst among SEC skill players. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 10.7 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State’s WRs has averaged just 13.2 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among SEC WRs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 10.7 RAC since the 2023 season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State’s WRs has gained 1,717 yards on 119 receptions (14.4 YPR) this season — T-34th-best among FBS WRs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State RBs averaged 12.5 Yards per Carry (237 yards/19 carries) last week– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Mississippi State has averaged just 11.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst among SEC skill players. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 10.7 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State’s WRs has averaged just 13.2 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among SEC WRs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 10.7 RAC since the 2023 season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State’s WRs has gained 1,717 yards on 119 receptions (14.4 YPR) this season — T-34th-best among FBS WRs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State has gained 2,297 yards on 171 receptions (13.4 YPR) this season — T-23rd-best among FBS skill players. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Tennessee Offensive Stats & Trends
Tennessee’s WRs has averaged just 13.4 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among SEC WRs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 10.8 RAC since the 2023 season — 5th-best among SEC defenses.
Tennessee has gained 5,038 yards on 412 receptions (just 12.2 YPR) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among SEC skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 5th-best among SEC defenses.
Tennessee’s WRs has averaged just 13.4 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among SEC WRs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 10.8 RAC since the 2023 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.
Tennessee’s WRs has averaged just 13.4 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among SEC WRs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 12.0 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.
Tennessee RBs have rushed for 24 TDs this season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams
Mississippi State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State has allowed 207.3 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 126.3
Mississippi State has not recorded a sack (37 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 14.2
Mississippi State has not recorded a sack (37 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.3
Mississippi State has allowed 1,905 rushing yards this season– most in the SEC
Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 5 of 10 carries (50%) on 3rd and long this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 14%
Tennessee Volunteers Defensive Stats & Trends
Tennessee has allowed 4 rushing TDs on 284 carries (71 Carries Per TD) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 23.5
Tennessee has allowed 4 rushing TDs on 284 carries (71 Carries Per TD) this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 26.8
Tennessee has allowed 4 rushing TDs on 35 carries (8.8 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 4.6
Tennessee has allowed 17 rushing TDs on 747 carries (43.9 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 23.8
Tennessee has tackled opponents for a loss on 158 of 747 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 17%.
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