- Missouri is a -7.5 point favorite vs. Mississippi St
- Missouri vs. Mississippi State Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
- TV Channel: SECN
The Missouri Tigers (7-3) visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-8) on Nov. 23 in Starkville, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15pm EST.
Missouri is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).
The Missouri vs. Mississippi State Over/Under is 56.5 total points.
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Missouri vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Missouri | -7.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | -300 |
| Mississippi State | +7.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | +240 |
Missouri vs Mississippi State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Missouri will win this game with 70.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Missouri and Mississippi St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Missouri vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Mississippi State will cover the spread with 62.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Mississippi St vs Missouri and all games with BetMGM
Missouri Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Missouri has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.95 Units / 1% ROI)
- Missouri has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- Missouri has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Missouri have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Missouri have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
Mississippi State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Mississippi State have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- Mississippi State have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.35 Units / 12% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Missouri players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Missouri Player Prop Bets Today
- Luther Burden III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Marcus Carroll has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Theo Wease Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Luther Burden III has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Theo Wease Jr. has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Mississippi State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mississippi State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kevin Coleman Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Johnnie Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Missouri is 6-4 against the spread this college football season (+1.5 Units / 13.51% ROI).
- Missouri is 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.35 Units / 0.73% ROI
- Missouri is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Missouri is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi St is 6-4 against the spread this college football season (+1.55 Units / 14.03% ROI).
- Mississippi State is 1-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.25 Units / -42.86% ROI
- Mississippi State is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
- Mississippi State is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI
Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State
Missouri is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– 13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .673
Missouri is 7-4 (.636) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .428
Missouri is 18-3 (.857) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-14th-best in FBS; Average: .607
Missouri is undefeated (9-0) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .691
Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri
Mississippi State is winless (0-8) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .471
Mississippi State is 1-4 (.200) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season– T-3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .601
Mississippi State is 2-10 (.167) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .450
Mississippi State is 3-10 (.231) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .511
Matchup Notes for Missouri vs. Mississippi State
Mississippi State’s WRs has gained 1,798 yards on 125 receptions (14.4 YPR) this season — T-29th-best among FBS WRs. Missouri’s defense has allowed 14.4 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State’s RBs has 21 receptions in 10 games (just 2.1 per game) this season — T-25th-worst among FBS RBs. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 14.7 receptions per game this season — 7th-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State’s RBs has 21 receptions in 10 games (just 2.1 per game) this season — T-25th-worst among FBS RBs. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 14.7 receptions per game this season — best among SEC defenses.
Missouri’s TEs has gained 217 yards on 29 receptions (just 7.5 YPR) this season — worst among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
Missouri’s TEs has gained 217 yards on 29 receptions (just 7.5 YPR) this season — 4th-worst among P5 TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
Missouri’s TEs has 29 receptions in 10 games (just 2.9 per game) this season — 4th-worst among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 21.1 receptions per game this season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.
Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends
Missouri’s TEs has gained 217 yards on 29 receptions (just 7.5 YPR) this season — worst among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
Missouri’s TEs has gained 217 yards on 29 receptions (just 7.5 YPR) this season — 4th-worst among P5 TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
Missouri’s TEs has 29 receptions in 10 games (just 2.9 per game) this season — 4th-worst among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 21.1 receptions per game this season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.
Missouri’s TEs has 29 receptions in 10 games (just 2.9 per game) this season — 4th-worst among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 21.1 receptions per game this season — 2nd-worst among SEC defenses.
Missouri TEs have averaged just 5.3 yards per reception (37 yards/7 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.6
Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State WRs have caught 4 touchdown passes in close and late situations this season– most among SEC Teams
Mississippi State TEs have averaged a touchdown every 25.0 receptions (50 Rec/2 TDs) since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 9.1
Mississippi State Skill Players have caught 5 touchdown passes in close and late situations this season– most among SEC Teams
Mississippi State TEs have just one touchdown on 35 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 9.3
Mississippi State WRs have picked up first downs on 15 receptions in close and late situations this season– most among SEC Teams
Missouri Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends
Missouri allowed 5 TD passes last week– most in the SEC
Missouri allowed 5 TD passes last week– T-most in FBS
Missouri allowed passes of 20+ yards on 7 of 30 attempts (23%) last week– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%
Missouri allowed 5 TD passes last week– most among Power Conference Teams
Missouri allowed 6 rushing TDs on 60 carries (10 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.7
Mississippi State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State has averaged 0.7 sacks per game this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 2.5
Mississippi State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 38 of 416 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 17%.
Mississippi State has allowed 28 TDs in the Red Zone this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 1.6
Mississippi State has sacked opposing QBs on just 2% of pass attempts (7/297) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 8%
Mississippi State has averaged a sack every 42.4 pass attempts (297 Pass Attempts/7 Sacks) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2
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