Missouri vs South Carolina Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 12

South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer reacts to a call during the second quarter of the Gator Bowl NCAA college football game against Notre Dame on Friday, Dec. 30, 2022, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Gary McCullough)
(AP Photo/Gary McCullough)
  • South Carolina is a -12.5 point favorite vs. Missouri
  • Missouri vs. South Carolina Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
  • TV Channel: SECN

The Missouri Tigers (7-2) visit Williams-Brice Stadium to take on the South Carolina Gamecocks (6-3) on Nov. 16 in Columbia, SC. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15pm EST.

South Carolina is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-110).

The Missouri vs. South Carolina Over/Under is 44.5 total points.

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Missouri vs. South Carolina Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Missouri+12.5 -11044.5 -110+360
South Carolina -12.5 -11044.5 -110-500

Missouri vs South Carolina Prediction:

The winning team model predicts South Carolina will win this game with 83.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Missouri and South Carolina, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Missouri vs South Carolina Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts South Carolina will cover the spread with 51.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Missouri has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.95 Units / 2% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Missouri have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.85 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • South Carolina has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+6.15 Units / 31% ROI)
  • South Carolina has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • South Carolina has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+5.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • South Carolina have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • South Carolina have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 38% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Missouri players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Missouri Player Prop Bets Today

  • Luther Burden III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Marcus Carroll has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Theo Wease Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Luther Burden III has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Theo Wease Jr. has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for South Carolina players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best South Carolina Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Raheim Sanders has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jared Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • LaNorris Sellers has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Joshua Simon has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • LaNorris Sellers has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Missouri is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.5 Units / 5% ROI).

  • Missouri is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 0.94% ROI
  • Missouri is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Missouri is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI

South Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record

South Carolina is 7-2 against the spread this college football season (+4.8 Units / 48.73% ROI).

  • South Carolina is 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.25 Units / 9.67% ROI
  • South Carolina is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • South Carolina is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. South Carolina

Missouri is undefeated (9-0) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .693

Missouri is undefeated (11-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .674

Missouri is undefeated (14-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .617

Missouri is undefeated (11-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .715

South Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri

South Carolina is 4-8 (.333) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– T-32nd-worst in FBS; Average: .472

South Carolina is 3-8 (.273) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513

South Carolina is 3-8 (.273) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .413

South Carolina is 3-8 (.273) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .385

Matchup Notes for Missouri vs. South Carolina

South Carolina has 138 receptions in 9 games (just 15.3 per game) this season — T-29th-worst among FBS skill players. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 14.0 receptions per game this season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.

Oscar Adaway (SC) has rushed for 10 or more yards on just 3.8% of 53 carries this season — 3rd-worst of Qualified Running Back. Missouri’s defense has allowed 10+ yards on just 10.4% of carries to RBs this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

LaNorris Sellers (SC) has averaged just 7.5 pass attempts per sack this season — 5th-worst of Qualified Quarterbacks. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 10.7 pass attempts per sack this season — 20th-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri’s RBs have just 12.9 receiving yards per game this season — T-16th-worst among FBS RBs. South Carolina’s defense has allowed just 194.1 receiving yards per game this season — 33rd-best among FBS defenses.

Brady Cook (MIZ) has thrown 7 TDs and just one interception this season — T-5th-best of Qualified Quarterbacks. South Carolina’s defense has allowed just 0.6 TDs per Interception this season — T-3rd-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends

Missouri Skill Players had 4 receptions in the Red Zone last week– most among SEC Teams

Missouri Skill Players have no touchdowns on 16 receptions in close and late situations this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 11.6

Missouri TEs have averaged just 5.9 yards per reception (107 yards/18 catches) with 7-10 yards to go this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 11.4

Missouri Skill Players have averaged just 10.1 yards per reception (1,340 yards/133 catches) with 7-10 yards to go this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 13.2

Missouri TEs have averaged just 5.3 yards per reception (37 yards/7 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.7

South Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends

South Carolina TEs have averaged 28.2 yards per reception (169 yards/6 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 12.0

South Carolina WRs have no touchdowns on 1 receptions in the Red Zone this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 2.0

South Carolina TEs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among SEC Teams

South Carolina RBs have averaged 9.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (302 yards / 33 touches) on 3rd down this season– T-4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.7

South Carolina TEs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– T-3rd-most among Power Conference Teams

Missouri Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Missouri forced 4 fumbles last week– T-most among Power Conference Teams

Missouri has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 19 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

Missouri forced 4 fumbles last week– T-most in FBS

Missouri has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 19 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– best in the SEC; Average: 11%.

Missouri allowed 6 rushing TDs on 60 carries (10 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 4.7

South Carolina Gamecocks Defensive Stats & Trends

South Carolina has allowed a Completion Pct of just 27% (6 completions/22 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best in FBS; Average: 54%

South Carolina has allowed a Completion Pct of just 27% (6 completions/22 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best in the SEC; Average: 51%

South Carolina has forced 16 fumbles this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams

South Carolina has allowed a Completion Pct of just 27% (6 completions/22 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%

South Carolina has averaged 3.7 sacks per game this season– 2nd-best in the SEC; Average: 2.5


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.