Nebraska vs Purdue Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

BetMGM Betting Sep 27, 2024, 12:02 PM

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Purdue defensive end Kydran Jenkins (44) reacts during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Indiana, Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022, in Bloomington, Ind. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

(AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

The Nebraska is a -10 point favorite vs. Purdue
The Nebraska vs. Purdue Total(Over/Under): 47.5 points
TV Channel: PEAC

The Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-1) visit Ross-Ade Stadium to take on the Purdue Boilermakers (1-2) on Sep. 28 in West Lafayette, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Nebraska is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -10 (-110).

The Nebraska vs. Purdue Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

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Nebraska vs. Purdue Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Nebraska	-10 -110	47.5 -115	-375
Purdue	+10 -110	47.5 -105	+300

Nebraska vs Purdue Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Nebraska will win this game with 76.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Nebraska and Purdue, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Nebraska vs Purdue Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Purdue will cover the spread with 84.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Nebraska Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Nebraska has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.85 Units / 41% ROI)
Nebraska has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 13% ROI)
Nebraska has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 11 games (+2.30 Units / 10% ROI)
Nebraska have covered the 1Q Spread in 2 of their last 3 away games (+1.00 Units / 27% ROI)
Nebraska have covered the 1H Spread in 2 of their last 3 away games (+0.90 Units / 27% ROI)

Purdue Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Purdue has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)
Purdue has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Purdue has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.10 Units / 17% ROI)
Purdue has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.00 Units / 19% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Nebraska players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nebraska Player Prop Bets Today

Thomas Fidone II has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Alex Bullock has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Heinrich Haarberg has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Heinrich Haarberg has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Malachi Coleman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Purdue players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Purdue Player Prop Best Bets Today

Devin Mockobee has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Hudson Card has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.15 Units / 102% ROI)
Hudson Card has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Max Klare has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Nebraska Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nebraska is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).

Purdue Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Purdue is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -3.03% ROI).

Nebraska: Keys to the Game vs. Purdue

Nebraska is 2-5 (.286) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .614

Nebraska is 1-6 (.143) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .536

Nebraska is 1-4 (.200) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-8th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .455

Nebraska is 3-7 (.300) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .552

Purdue: Keys to the Game vs. Nebraska

Purdue is winless (0-8) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .448

Purdue is winless (0-8) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .393

Purdue is 4-9 (.308) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-40th-worst in FBS; Average: .427

Purdue is 4-8 (.333) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .538

Matchup Notes for Nebraska vs. Purdue

Purdue’s TEs has gained 177 yards on 14 receptions (12.6 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big Ten TEs. Nebraska’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Purdue has gained 515 yards on 48 receptions (just 10.7 YPR) this season — 5th-worst among Big Ten skill players. Nebraska’s defense has allowed just 6.9 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — 14th-best among FBS defenses.

Purdue has gained 515 yards on 48 receptions (just 10.7 YPR) this season — 5th-worst among Big Ten skill players. Nebraska’s defense has allowed just 10.1 Yards Per Reception this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Nebraska’s WRs has 62 receptions this season — 4th-most among Big Ten WRs. Purdue’s defense has allowed 21 receptions to WRs this season — T-2nd-fewest among FBS defenses.

Nebraska’s WRs has been targeted 86 times this season — 4th-most among Big Ten WRs. Purdue’s defense has allowed 370 receiving yards this season — 2nd-fewest among Big Ten defenses.

Nebraska has 90 receptions in 4 games (22.5 per game) this season — 5th-best among Big Ten skill players. Purdue’s defense has allowed just 11.0 receptions per game this season — best among Big Ten defenses.

Nebraska Offensive Stats & Trends

Nebraska QBs have fumbled 10 times in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

Nebraska Skill Players have fumbled 5 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

Nebraska Skill Players have fumbled 5 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

Nebraska Skill Players have fumbled 5 times in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Nebraska Skill Players have averaged just 13.9 receptions per game (223/16) since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.4

Purdue Offensive Stats & Trends

Purdue RBs have averaged 12.3 Yards per Carry (234 yards/19 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

Purdue Skill Players have averaged 18.1 yards per reception (163 yards/9 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 9.4

Purdue RBs have fumbled 5 times in close and late situations since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

Purdue WRs have averaged 24.5 yards per reception (147 yards/6 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.1

Purdue RBs have averaged 11.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (231 yards / 20 touches) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5

Nebraska Cornhuskers Defensive Stats & Trends

Nebraska has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 124 rushes this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 25.7

Nebraska has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 62 carries (8.9 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 4.7

Nebraska has allowed 9 rushing TDs on 500 carries (55.6 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 24.4

Nebraska allowed 4 TD passes last week– most in the Big Ten

Nebraska has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 124 rushes this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 35.6

Purdue Boilermakers Defensive Stats & Trends

Purdue has allowed 14.0 yards per completion (3,268 yards/234 completions) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 10.9

Purdue has no interceptions (54 pass attempts) this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 31.9

Purdue has no interceptions and 2 TD passes allowed this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.2

Purdue has no interceptions (54 pass attempts) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 29.6

Purdue has no interceptions and 2 TD passes allowed this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.0