Nevada vs UNLV Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 14

BetMGM Betting Nov 26, 2024, 2:27 PM

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UNLV Rebels wide receiver Ricky White (11) runs a route during an NCAA football game against the California Golden Bears on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022 in Berkeley, Calif. (AP Photo/Lachlan Cunningham)

(AP Photo/Lachlan Cunningham)

UNLV is a -17.5 point favorite vs. Nevada
Nevada vs. UNLV Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
TV Channel: CBSSN

The Nevada Wolf Pack (3-9) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the UNLV Rebels (9-2) on Nov. 30 in Paradise, NV. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST.

UNLV is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -17.5 (-110).

The Nevada vs. UNLV Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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Nevada vs. UNLV Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Nevada	+17.5 -110	55.5 -110	+600
UNLV	-17.5 -110	55.5 -110	-900

Nevada vs UNLV Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UNLV will win this game with 89.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Nevada and UNLV, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Nevada vs UNLV Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UNLV will cover the spread with 67.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Nevada Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Nevada has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.55 Units / 27% ROI)
Nevada has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Nevada has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Nevada have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 14% ROI)

UNLV Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

UNLV has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.15 Units / 27% ROI)
UNLV has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 11% ROI)
UNLV has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
UNLV have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.30 Units / 18% ROI)
UNLV has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.50 Units / 12% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Nevada players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nevada Player Prop Bets Today

Brendon Lewis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Brendon Lewis has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 61% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for UNLV players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UNLV Player Prop Best Bets Today

Ricky White III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Hajj-Malik Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Hajj-Malik Williams has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Jai’Den Thomas has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Hajj-Malik Williams has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 62% ROI)

Nevada Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Nevada is 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.55 Units / 4.17% ROI).

Nevada is 3-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.75 Units / -32.42% ROI
Nevada is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
Nevada is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI

UNLV Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UNLV is 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI).

UNLV is 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.05 Units / 16.34% ROI
UNLV is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
UNLV is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Nevada: Keys to the Game vs. UNLV

Nevada is winless (0-2) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .684

Nevada is winless (0-7) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .458

Nevada is 2-17 (.105) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: .454

Nevada is 5-15 (.250) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: .619

UNLV: Keys to the Game vs. Nevada

UNLV is 9-2 (.818) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season– T-8th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .564

UNLV is 14-5 (.737) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .590

UNLV is 7-2 (.778) when making 7 or more explosive plays this season– T-15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .591

UNLV is 12-5 (.706) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– 34th-best in FBS; Average: .598

Matchup Notes for Nevada vs. UNLV

UNLV’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.8% of 645 attempts since the 2023 season — T-27th-best among FBS offenses. Nevada’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.6% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV has 1.9 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-33rd-best among FBS skill players. Nevada’s defense has allowed just 0.9 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-12th-best among FBS defenses.

UNLV has 145 receptions in 11 games (just 13.2 per game) this season — 8th-worst among FBS skill players. Nevada’s defense has allowed just 16.3 receptions per game this season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

Nevada’s offense has thrown for 4,574 passing yards in 24 games (just 190.6 YPG) since the 2023 season — 24th-worst among FBS offenses. UNLV’s defense has allowed 249.2 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 14th-worst among FBS defenses.

Nevada’s RBs has averaged just 6.3 yards after the catch this season — T-29th-worst among FBS RBs. UNLV’s defense has allowed just 6.5 RAC to RBs this season — T-33rd-best among FBS defenses.

Nevada’s TEs have just 8.7 receiving yards per game this season — 5th-worst among FBS TEs. UNLV’s defense has allowed 244.2 receiving yards per game this season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Nevada Offensive Stats & Trends

Nevada RBs have averaged just 3.2 Yards per Carry (345 yards/107 carries) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Nevada Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 31.3 receptions (188 Rec/6 TDs) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.5

Nevada RBs averaged just 3.3 Yards per Carry (756 yards/231 carries) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Nevada RBs have averaged 4.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (2,429 yards / 567 touches) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

UNLV Offensive Stats & Trends

UNLV WRs averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (10 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9

UNLV RBs have rushed for 6 TDs on 56 carries (9.3 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 7th-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4

UNLV Skill Players have averaged 13.7 yards per reception (1,991 yards/145 catches) this season– T-17th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

Nevada Wolf Pack Defensive Stats & Trends

Nevada has allowed 27 rushing TDs in the Red Zone this season– most in FBS

Nevada has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (13/326) this season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: 7%

Nevada has tackled opponents for a loss on just 104 of 877 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) since the 2023 season– 9th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

Nevada did not sack opposing QBs on any of 3 pass attempts last week– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Nevada has averaged 1.1 sacks per game this season– T-5th-worst in FBS; Average: 2.1

UNLV Rebels Defensive Stats & Trends

UNLV defense has allowed 104 completions for 20 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-3rd-most in FBS

UNLV allowed passes of 40+ yards on 21 of 398 attempts (5%) in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 2%

UNLV allowed passes of 20+ yards on 67 of 398 attempts (17%) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%

UNLV allowed 67 receptions for 20+ yards in the 2023 season– most in FBS

UNLV has 16 interceptions this season– 3rd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams