- Middle Tenn State is a -3.5 point favorite vs. New Mexico State
- New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The New Mexico State Aggies (2-8) visit Johnny (Red) Floyd Stadium to take on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-7) on Nov. 23 in Murfreesboro, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30pm EST.
Middle Tenn State is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).
The New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee Over/Under is 51.5 total points.
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New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| New Mexico State | +3.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +140 |
| Middle Tennessee | -3.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -165 |
New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Middle Tennessee will win this game with 60.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both New Mexico State and Middle Tenn State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Middle Tennessee will cover the spread with 53.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Middle Tenn State vs New Mexico State and all games with BetMGM
New Mexico State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- New Mexico State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- New Mexico State have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- New Mexico State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- New Mexico State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.60 Units / 8% ROI)
Middle Tennessee Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Middle Tennessee has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Middle Tennessee have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.35 Units / 12% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for New Mexico State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best New Mexico State Player Prop Bets Today
- Mike Washington has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- TJ Pride has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- PJ Johnson III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Middle Tennessee players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Middle Tennessee Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Holden Willis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Nicholas Vattiato has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.25 Units / 125% ROI)
- Nicholas Vattiato has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Omari Kelly has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
New Mexico State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
New Mexico State is 4-6 against the spread this college football season (-2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI).
- New Mexico State is 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.3 Units / -19.57% ROI
- New Mexico State is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 24.43% ROI
- New Mexico State is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.55 Units / -32.42% ROI
Middle Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Middle Tenn State is 3-7 against the spread this college football season (-4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI).
- Middle Tennessee is 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -44.59% ROI
- Middle Tennessee is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -24.32% ROI
- Middle Tennessee is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.68% ROI
New Mexico State: Keys to the Game vs. Middle Tennessee
New Mexico State is 1-7 (.111) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: .487
New Mexico State is 1-7 (.111) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .438
New Mexico State is 2-6 (.222) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-25th-worst in FBS; Average: .439
New Mexico State is 7-12 (.350) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 37th-worst in FBS; Average: .448
Middle Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico State
Middle Tennessee is 5-14 (.263) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-26th-worst in FBS; Average: .432
Middle Tennessee is 2-7 (.222) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-18th-worst in FBS; Average: .487
Middle Tennessee is 3-7 (.300) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .443
Middle Tennessee is 3-9 (.250) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-9th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .471
Matchup Notes for New Mexico State vs. Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee’s offense has thrown for 2,600 passing yards in 10 games (260.0 YPG) this season — 34th-best among FBS offenses. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 256.5 passing yards per game this season — 21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee’s QBs has thrown for 2,600 passing yards in 10 games (260.0 YPG) this season — 32nd-best among FBS teams. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 256.5 passing yards per game this season — 21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee has averaged just 10.5 yards after the catch this season — T-13th-worst among FBS skill players. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 13.0 RAC this season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State’s offense has thrown for 1,141 passing yards in 10 games (just 114.1 YPG) this season — 3rd-worst among FBS offenses. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 247.0 passing yards per game this season — 30th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State’s QBs has thrown for 1,141 passing yards in 10 games (just 114.1 YPG) this season — 3rd-worst among FBS teams. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 247.0 passing yards per game this season — 30th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State’s WRs has just 0.3 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-5th-worst among FBS WRs. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 2.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — 9th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State Offensive Stats & Trends
New Mexico State Skill Players have caught just 105 of 237 passes (44% Reception Pct) this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 63%
New Mexico State’s offense has thrown for 1,141 passing yards in 10 games (just 114.1 YPG) this season — 3rd-worst among FBS offenses. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 247.0 passing yards per game this season — 30th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State’s QBs has thrown for 1,141 passing yards in 10 games (just 114.1 YPG) this season — 3rd-worst among FBS teams. Middle Tennessee’s defense has allowed 247.0 passing yards per game this season — 30th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State RBs have averaged 13.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (247 yards / 18 touches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.0
New Mexico State WRs have caught just 69 of 172 passes (40% Reception Pct) this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 60%
Middle Tennessee Offensive Stats & Trends
Middle Tennessee’s offense has thrown for 2,600 passing yards in 10 games (260.0 YPG) this season — 34th-best among FBS offenses. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 256.5 passing yards per game this season — 21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee’s QBs has thrown for 2,600 passing yards in 10 games (260.0 YPG) this season — 32nd-best among FBS teams. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 256.5 passing yards per game this season — 21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Middle Tennessee TEs have 5 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– 4th-most among FBS Teams
Middle Tennessee RBs have 12 receptions in close and late situations this season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
Middle Tennessee has averaged just 10.5 yards after the catch this season — T-13th-worst among FBS skill players. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 13.0 RAC this season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State Aggies Defensive Stats & Trends
New Mexico State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 17 of 308 attempts (6%) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 2%
New Mexico State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 17 of 308 attempts (6%) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%
New Mexico State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 44 of 401 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) this season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
New Mexico State has allowed 14.4 yards per completion (2,565 yards/178 completions) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.0
New Mexico State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (35 completions/82 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Defensive Stats & Trends
Middle Tennessee has no interceptions and 14 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10.0
Middle Tennessee has no interceptions (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 38.7
Middle Tennessee has no interceptions (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 40.2
Middle Tennessee has tackled opponents for a loss on just 51 of 389 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) this season– T-28th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
Middle Tennessee opponents has averaged just 13.5 Passing Attempts per TD (298 Pass Attempts/22 Passing TDs) this season– T-8th-worst in FBS; Average: 21.1
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