Oklahoma vs LSU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 14

BetMGM Betting Nov 26, 2024, 2:37 PM

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LSU running back Kaleb Jackson (28) signals while watching a replay during the first half of an NCAA football game against Mississippi on Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023, in Oxford, Miss. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)

(AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)

LSU is a -6 point favorite vs. Oklahoma
Oklahoma vs. LSU Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The Oklahoma Sooners (6-5) visit Tiger Stadium to take on the LSU Tigers (7-4) on Nov. 30 in Baton Rouge, LA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST.

LSU is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).

The Oklahoma vs. LSU Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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Oklahoma vs. LSU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Oklahoma	+6 -110	46.5 -110	+180
LSU	-6 -110	46.5 -110	-225

Oklahoma vs LSU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts LSU will win this game with 65.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Oklahoma and LSU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Oklahoma vs LSU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts LSU will cover the spread with 65.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Oklahoma Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Oklahoma has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+8.45 Units / 29% ROI)
Oklahoma has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
Oklahoma has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.50 Units / 27% ROI)
Oklahoma has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+2.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Oklahoma have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.25 Units / 2% ROI)

LSU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

LSU has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
LSU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 26% ROI)
LSU has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.75 Units / 6% ROI)
LSU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.60 Units / 22% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Oklahoma players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Oklahoma Player Prop Bets Today

Jackson Arnold has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Jackson Arnold has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Jovantae Barnes has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jackson Arnold has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jovantae Barnes has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for LSU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best LSU Player Prop Best Bets Today

Kyren Lacy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Mason Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
CJ Daniels has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Garrett Nussmeier has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Garrett Nussmeier has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Oklahoma Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oklahoma is 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.45 Units / 3.69% ROI).

Oklahoma is 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.05 Units / 0.28% ROI
Oklahoma is 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
Oklahoma is 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI

LSU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

LSU is 3-8 against the spread this college football season (-5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI).

LSU is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 2.49% ROI
LSU is 3-8 when betting the Over for -5.85 Units / -48.15% ROI
LSU is 8-3 when betting the Under for +4.7 Units / 39% ROI

Oklahoma: Keys to the Game vs. LSU

Oklahoma is undefeated (11-0) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .598

Oklahoma is 9-3 (.750) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 15th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .589

Oklahoma is 14-3 (.824) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: .751

Oklahoma is 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .613

LSU: Keys to the Game vs. Oklahoma

LSU is 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .641

LSU is 9-2 (.818) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .619

LSU is 16-4 (.800) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: .579

LSU is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .724

Matchup Notes for Oklahoma vs. LSU

LSU’s TEs has 63 receptions in 11 games (5.7 per game) this season — 5th-best among P5 TEs. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed just 17.0 receptions per game this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

LSU’s WRs has 9 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — T-2nd-most among SEC WRs. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed 8 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — T-4th-most among SEC defenses.

LSU’s TEs has 63 receptions in 11 games (5.7 per game) this season — best among SEC TEs. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed just 17.0 receptions per game this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma’s TEs has 52 receptions in 11 games (4.7 per game) this season — T-3rd-best among SEC TEs. LSU’s defense has allowed just 2.4 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma’s WRs has just 0.6 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-worst among SEC WRs. LSU’s defense has allowed just 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-3rd-best among SEC defenses.

Oklahoma has 13 receiving touchdowns this season — T-2nd-fewest among SEC skill players. LSU’s defense has allowed 9 receiving touchdowns this season — T-3rd-fewest among SEC defenses.

Oklahoma Offensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma Skill Players have averaged just 9.9 yards per reception (1,885 yards/190 catches) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.9

Oklahoma TEs have averaged just 7.0 yards per reception (63 yards/9 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.0

Oklahoma have been sacked on 19% of pass attempts (18/96) in the 4th quarter this season– 3rd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 7%

Oklahoma WRs have just one touchdown on 39 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 10.5

LSU Offensive Stats & Trends

LSU QBs have 127 completions for 20 or more yards since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

LSU Skill Players have 35 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among SEC Teams

LSU QBs have 66 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

LSU Skill Players have 35 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

Oklahoma Sooners Defensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma has no interceptions and 8 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 5.6

Oklahoma allowed no passing TDs (27 pass attempts) last week– T-best in the SEC; Average: 22.8

Oklahoma has allowed 8 rushing TDs on 407 carries (50.9 Carries Per TD) this season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 23.1

Oklahoma has allowed 6 rushing TDs on 49 carries (8.2 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– best in the SEC; Average: 5.1

Oklahoma’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 16% of PATs since the 2023 season– 4th-highest in FBS; Average: 7%

LSU Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

LSU has allowed 4.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (255 yards / 54 touches) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 3.3

LSU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 48 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

LSU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 48 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 16%.

LSU has intercepted 4 of 306 attempts (76.5 pass attempts per int.) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 34.8

LSU has no interceptions and 18 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 9.0