Oklahoma vs Missouri Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 05, 2024, 3:41 PM

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Missouri head coach Eliah Drinkwitz yells during the second half of the team's Cotton Bowl NCAA college football game against Ohio State on Friday, Dec. 29, 2023, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Missouri is a -1 point favorite vs. Oklahoma
Oklahoma vs. Missouri Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
TV Channel: SECN

The Oklahoma Sooners (5-4) visit Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field to take on the Missouri Tigers (6-2) on Nov. 9 in Columbia, MO. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45pm EST.

Missouri is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).

The Oklahoma vs. Missouri Over/Under is 42.5 total points.

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Oklahoma vs. Missouri Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Oklahoma	+1 -110	42.5 -110	-105
Missouri	-1 -110	42.5 -110	-115

Oklahoma vs Missouri Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Missouri will win this game with 57.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Oklahoma and Missouri, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Oklahoma vs Missouri Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Missouri will cover the spread with 60.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Oklahoma Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Oklahoma has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+6.25 Units / 14% ROI)
Oklahoma has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+4.20 Units / 16% ROI)
Oklahoma has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.00 Units / 0% ROI)
Oklahoma have covered the 1Q Spread in 2 of their last 3 away games (+1.35 Units / 45% ROI)
Oklahoma has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 2 of their last 3 away games (+1.00 Units / 29% ROI)

Missouri Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Missouri has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 58% ROI)
Missouri has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.70 Units / 2% ROI)
Missouri has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 49% ROI)
Missouri has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Missouri have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.40 Units / 11% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Oklahoma players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Oklahoma Player Prop Bets Today

Jackson Arnold has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Jackson Arnold has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Jovantae Barnes has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jackson Arnold has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Brenen Thompson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Missouri players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Missouri Player Prop Best Bets Today

Luther Burden III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Theo Wease Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Marcus Carroll has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Luther Burden III has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Theo Wease Jr. has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)

Oklahoma Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oklahoma is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.55 Units / 5.5% ROI).

Oklahoma is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Oklahoma is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
Oklahoma is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Missouri is 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.5 Units / -5.62% ROI).

Missouri is 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 0.65% ROI
Missouri is 2-6 when betting the Over for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI
Missouri is 6-2 when betting the Under for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI

Oklahoma: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri

Oklahoma is undefeated (11-0) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .660

Oklahoma is 7-4 (.636) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-38th-best in FBS; Average: .529

Oklahoma is 15-5 (.750) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: .635

Oklahoma is 14-4 (.778) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: .607

Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. Oklahoma

Missouri is undefeated (13-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .619

Missouri is undefeated (11-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .718

Missouri is undefeated (8-0) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .624

Missouri is undefeated (13-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .685

Matchup Notes for Oklahoma vs. Missouri

Missouri’s TEs has 47 receptions in 21 games (just 2.2 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among SEC TEs. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed 3.6 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.

Missouri’s TEs has 24 receptions in 8 games (just 3.0 per game) this season — 4th-worst among SEC TEs. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed 3.9 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Missouri’s WRs has been targeted 493 times since the 2023 season — T-4th-most among SEC WRs. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed 5,217 receiving yards since the 2023 season — 2nd-most among SEC defenses.

Oklahoma’s WRs has 340 receptions in 22 games (15.5 per game) since the 2023 season — 24th-best among FBS WRs. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 10.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma has 475 receptions in 22 games (21.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 4th-best among SEC skill players. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 17.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma’s WRs has 340 receptions in 22 games (15.5 per game) since the 2023 season — 24th-best among FBS WRs. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 17.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma Offensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma RBs rushed for 5 TDs in the Red Zone last week– most among FBS Teams

Oklahoma’s TEs has gained 357 yards on 44 receptions (just 8.1 YPR) this season — 2nd-worst among SEC TEs. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 9.4 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends

Missouri Skill Players have averaged just 8.2 yards per reception (294 yards/36 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 13.2

Missouri Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 24.6 receptions (172 Rec/7 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 11.3

Missouri Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 24.6 receptions (172 Rec/7 TDs) this season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.6

Oklahoma Sooners Defensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma has allowed 8.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (529 yards / 62 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 5.2

Oklahoma has no interceptions and 5 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 4.5

Oklahoma has allowed 8.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (529 yards / 62 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.2

Oklahoma has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (29/258) this season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 7%

Oklahoma has no interceptions (26 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 20.9

Missouri Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Missouri has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 16 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– best in the SEC; Average: 12%.

Missouri has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 16 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.

Missouri has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (4 completions/12 attempts) in close and late situations this season– best in the SEC; Average: 58%

Missouri has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 16 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

Missouri has tackled opponents for a loss on just 47 of 268 rushing attempts (17% TFL%) this season– 5th-worst in the SEC; Average: 18%.