Penn State vs Oregon Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Big Ten Championship

BetMGM Betting Dec 03, 2024, 3:48 PM

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FILE - Oregon coach Dan Lanning reacts to a play against BYU during the first half of an NCAA college football game Sept. 17, 2022, in Eugene, Ore. Oregon and head coach Dan Lanning have agreed to a contract extension that will extend his deal through the 2028 season. The Oregon Board of Trustees unanimously approved the terms of the contract Thursday, July 27, 2023. Lanning’s new deal will pay him a total of $45 million in base salary over six years. (AP Photo/Andy Nelson, File)

(AP Photo/Andy Nelson)

Oregon is a -3.5 point favorite vs. Penn State
Penn State vs. Oregon Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
TV Channel: CBS

The Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Oregon Ducks (12-0) on Dec. 7 in Indianapolis, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST.

Oregon is a betting favorite in Week 15, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).

The Penn State vs. Oregon Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

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Penn State vs. Oregon Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Penn State	+3.5 -105	49.5 -110	+150
Oregon	-3.5 -115	49.5 -110	-175

Penn State vs Oregon Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Oregon will win this game with 59.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Penn State and Oregon, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Penn State vs Oregon Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Oregon will cover the spread with 52.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Penn State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Penn State has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 0% ROI)
Penn State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.90 Units / 35% ROI)
Penn State have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Penn State has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)

Oregon Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Oregon has hit the Moneyline in their last 12 games (+12.50 Units / 7% ROI)
Oregon has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.50 Units / 24% ROI)
Oregon has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Oregon have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Oregon has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.70 Units / 24% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Penn State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Penn State Player Prop Bets Today

Harrison Wallace III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Nicholas Singleton has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
Drew Allar has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Julian Fleming has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)
Liam Clifford has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Oregon players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Oregon Player Prop Best Bets Today

Traeshon Holden has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Dillon Gabriel has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jordan James has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jordan James has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Tez Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn State is 6-6 against the spread this college football season (-0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Penn State is 10-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +9 Units / 0.64% ROI
Penn State is 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
Penn State is 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI

Oregon Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oregon is 6-6 against the spread this college football season (-0.55 Units / -4.18% ROI).

Oregon is 11-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.5 Units / 6.44% ROI
Oregon is 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
Oregon is 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Oregon

Penn State is undefeated (7-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .433

Penn State is undefeated (7-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .478

Penn State is undefeated (10-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .652

Penn State is undefeated (11-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .627

Oregon: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

Oregon is undefeated (9-0) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .488

Oregon is 13-1 (.929) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .442

Oregon is undefeated (11-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .627

Oregon is undefeated (10-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .635

Matchup Notes for Penn State vs. Oregon

Oregon’s WRs has gained 2,113 yards on 176 receptions (just 12.0 YPR) this season — 5th-worst among Big Ten WRs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception this season — T-4th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Oregon’s WRs has gained 2,113 yards on 176 receptions (just 12.0 YPR) this season — 5th-worst among Big Ten WRs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State’s WRs has gained 1,415 yards on 87 receptions (16.3 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten WRs. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception this season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State’s TEs has 97 receptions in 12 games (8.1 per game) this season — best among Big Ten TEs. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 16.4 receptions per game this season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State’s WRs has gained 1,415 yards on 87 receptions (16.3 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten WRs. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-3rd-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends

Penn State WRs have averaged 30.3 yards per reception (91 yards/3 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.5

Penn State WRs have averaged 30.3 yards per reception (91 yards/3 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.6

Penn State WRs have averaged 30.3 yards per reception (91 yards/3 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 14.1

Penn State TEs have caught 21 touchdown passes in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

Oregon Offensive Stats & Trends

Oregon TEs have been targeted 22 times in the Red Zone this season– most among Big Ten Teams

Oregon’s offense has thrown for 3,331 passing yards in 12 games (277.6 YPG) this season — 14th-best among FBS offenses. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 169.8 passing yards per game this season — 7th-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Stats & Trends

Penn State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (82/679) since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 7%

Penn State has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 35 carries (17.5 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 5.1

Penn State has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 373 carries (74.6 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 23.1

Penn State has allowed 15 rushing TDs on 807 carries (53.8 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 23.6

Penn State has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 35 carries (17.5 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.8

Oregon Ducks Defensive Stats & Trends

Oregon has tackled opponents for a loss on 10 of 55 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 11%.

Oregon has allowed first downs on 12% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 31%

Oregon has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (38/355) this season– 2nd-best in the Big Ten; Average: 7%

Oregon has allowed a Completion Pct of just 25% (2 completions/8 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– T-2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Oregon has allowed a Completion Pct of just 25% (2 completions/8 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 59%