Rice vs Houston Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

BetMGM Betting Sep 12, 2024, 11:25 AM

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Houston quarterback Donovan Smith (1) looks for a receiver as Central Florida defensive end Tre'Mon Morris-Brash (3) gives chase during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

Houston is a -4 point favorite vs. Rice
Rice vs. Houston Total(Over/Under): 44.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

The Rice Owls (1-1) visit TDECU Stadium to take on the Houston Cougars (0-2) on Sep. 14 in Houston, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT.

Houston is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).

The Rice vs. Houston Over/Under is 44.5 total points.

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Rice vs. Houston Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Rice	+4 -110	44.5 -110	+160
Houston	-4 -110	44.5 -110	-190

Rice vs Houston Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Houston will win this game with 63.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Rice and Houston, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Rice vs Houston Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Houston will cover the spread with 82.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Rice Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Rice have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 4 away games (+4.20 Units / 92% ROI)

Rice have covered the 1H Spread in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)

Rice has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.50 Units / 28% ROI)

Rice has hit the Game Total Under in their last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)

Rice has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.55 Units / 18% ROI)

Houston Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Houston has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)

Houston has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.80 Units / 24% ROI)

Houston have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 12% ROI)

Houston has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.25 Units / 2% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Rice players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rice Player Prop Bets Today

Dean Connors has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Dean Connors has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

AJ Padgett has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Boden Groen has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

AJ Padgett has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Houston players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Houston Player Prop Best Bets Today

Joseph Manjack IV has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)

Donovan Smith has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Parker Jenkins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Donovan Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Donovan Smith has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)

Rice Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Rice is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Rice is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.55 Units / -100% ROI
Rice is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Rice is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Houston Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Houston is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.05 Units / -2.33% ROI).

Houston is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.65 Units / -100% ROI
Houston is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
Houston is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI

Rice: Keys to the Game vs. Houston

Rice is 1-5 (.167) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-5th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .494

Rice is 3-8 (.273) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2022 season– T-22nd-worst in FBS; Average: .497

Rice is 2-10 (.154) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2022 season– 16th-worst in FBS; Average: .399

Rice is 3-12 (.200) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2022 season– T-18th-worst in FBS; Average: .453

Houston: Keys to the Game vs. Rice

Houston is 1-3 (.083) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2022 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .445

Houston is 1-7 (.125) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-8th-worst in FBS; Average: .508

Houston is winless (0-6) when intercepting no passes since the 2022 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .324

Houston is 1-7 (.091) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .371

Matchup Notes for Rice vs. Houston

Houston’s WRs has 32 receptions in 2 games (16.0 per game) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 WRs. Rice’s defense has allowed just 13.0 receptions per game this season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

Houston has 46 receptions in 2 games (23.0 per game) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 skill players. Rice’s defense has allowed just 13.0 receptions per game this season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

Houston’s WRs has 32 receptions in 2 games (16.0 per game) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 WRs. Rice’s defense has allowed just 8.5 receptions per game to WRs this season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.

Rice has 48 receptions in 2 games (24.0 per game) this season — T-29th-best among FBS skill players. Houston’s defense has allowed just 13.0 receptions per game this season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

Rice’s RBs has 14 receptions in 2 games (7.0 per game) this season — T-3rd-best among FBS RBs. Houston’s defense has allowed just 13.0 receptions per game this season — 3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.

Rice’s RBs has 14 receptions in 2 games (7.0 per game) this season — T-3rd-best among FBS RBs. Houston’s defense has allowed just 13.0 receptions per game this season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

Rice Offensive Stats & Trends

Rice Skill Players have averaged 19.7 yards per reception (118 yards/6 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 10.4

Rice TEs have been targeted 6 times in close and late situations this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Rice Punters have placed 13% of punts inside the 20 (8/62) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 32%

Rice RBs have been targeted 10 times on 1st down this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Houston Offensive Stats & Trends

Houston Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 23.0 receptions (46 Rec/2 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big 12 Teams; Average: 9.5

Houston WRs have 13 receptions in close and late situations this season– most among Power Conference Teams

Houston WRs have caught 36 touchdown passes in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– most among Big 12 Teams

Houston Skill Players have been targeted 24 times in close and late situations this season– most among FBS Teams

Houston Skill Players have 18 receptions in close and late situations this season– most among FBS Teams

Rice Owls Defensive Stats & Trends

Rice has sacked opposing QBs on 24% of pass attempts (11/46) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 6%

Rice has sacked opposing QBs on 24% of pass attempts (11/46) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 7%

Rice has averaged 5.5 sacks per game this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9

Rice has sacked opponents 11 times this season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Rice has tackled opponents for a loss on 21 of 80 rushing attempts (26% TFL%) this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

Houston Cougars Defensive Stats & Trends

Houston has allowed a Completion Pct of 67% (289 completions/430 attempts) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 60%

Houston has allowed a Completion Pct of 65% (84 completions/130 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2022 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 53%

Houston opponents has averaged just 11.5 Passing Attempts per TD (46 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) this season– 2nd-worst in the Big 12; Average: 23.3

Houston has allowed a Completion Pct of just 25% (2 completions/8 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 52%

Houston has allowed opponents to catch 289 of 428 passes (68% Reception Pct) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 61%