Tennessee vs Georgia Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 13, 2024, 4:42 PM

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Georgia head coach Kirby Smart watches a play during the first half of the Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game against Alabama in Atlanta, Saturday, Dec. 2, 2023. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

(AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Georgia is a -10.5 point favorite vs. Tennessee
Tennessee vs. Georgia Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

The Tennessee Volunteers (8-1) visit Sanford Stadium to take on the Georgia Bulldogs (7-2) on Nov. 16 in Athens, GA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST.

Georgia is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).

The Tennessee vs. Georgia Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

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Tennessee vs. Georgia Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Tennessee	+10.5 -110	48.5 -115	+300
Georgia	-10.5 -110	48.5 -105	-375

Tennessee vs Georgia Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Georgia will win this game with 75.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Tennessee and Georgia, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Tennessee vs Georgia Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Georgia will cover the spread with 72.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Tennessee Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Tennessee has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 44% ROI)
Tennessee has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+2.95 Units / 0% ROI)
Tennessee has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.50 Units / 21% ROI)
Tennessee have covered the 1H Spread in 2 of their last 3 away games (+0.95 Units / 30% ROI)
Tennessee have covered the Spread in 2 of their last 3 away games (+0.90 Units / 27% ROI)

Georgia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Georgia has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Georgia has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+3.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Georgia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
Georgia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 2 of their last 3 games at home (+0.95 Units / 28% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Tennessee players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Tennessee Player Prop Bets Today

Dylan Sampson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
Squirrel White has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Nico Iamaleava has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 58% ROI)
Dylan Sampson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Bru McCoy has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Georgia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Georgia Player Prop Best Bets Today

Dominic Lovett has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 84% ROI)
Arian Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Trevor Etienne has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Dillon Bell has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Trevor Etienne has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Tennessee is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI).

Tennessee is 7-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.95 Units / 0.18% ROI
Tennessee is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
Tennessee is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

Georgia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Georgia is 2-7 against the spread this college football season (-5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI).

Georgia is 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.05 Units / 5.16% ROI
Georgia is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.55 Units / -36.04% ROI
Georgia is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 27.14% ROI

Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia

Tennessee is undefeated (16-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .784

Tennessee is 8-1 (.889) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-8th-best in FBS; Average: .587

Tennessee is 17-2 (.895) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .656

Tennessee is 11-3 (.786) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .606

Georgia: Keys to the Game vs. Tennessee

Georgia is 11-2 (.846) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: .429

Georgia is undefeated (12-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .617

Georgia is undefeated (16-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .713

Georgia is undefeated (16-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .670

Matchup Notes for Tennessee vs. Georgia

Georgia’s QBs has thrown for 2,578 passing yards in 9 games (286.4 YPG) this season — T-16th-best among FBS teams. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 171.6 passing yards per game this season — 15th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.6% of 333 attempts this season — T-27th-best among FBS offenses. Tennessee’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.4% of attempts this season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.

Georgia’s offense has thrown for 2,578 passing yards in 9 games (286.4 YPG) this season — T-16th-best among FBS offenses. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 171.6 passing yards per game this season — 15th-best among FBS defenses.

Tennessee’s RBs has rushed for 1,872 yards on 335 carries (5.6 YPC) this season — T-29th-best among FBS RBs. Georgia’s defense have allowed just 3.4 YPC this season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.

Tennessee’s RBs has rushed for 1,872 yards on 335 carries (5.6 YPC) this season — T-29th-best among FBS RBs. Georgia’s defense have allowed just 4.0 YPC to RBs this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.

Dylan Sampson (TEN) has averaged a TD every 10.0 carries this season — 9th-best of Qualified Running Back. Georgia’s defense allowed a touchdown every 42.6 carries this season — 14th-best among FBS defenses.

Tennessee Offensive Stats & Trends

Tennessee WRs averaged a touchdown every 4.3 receptions (13 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 1.9

Tennessee Skill Players have averaged just 10.7 yards per reception (887 yards/83 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 13.0

Tennessee RBs have carried the ball 55 times on 3rd down this season– most among FBS Teams

Tennessee RBs have averaged 37.2 carries per game (335 carries / 9 games) this season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 24.9

Tennessee WRs have averaged just 10.6 yards per reception (550 yards/52 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 14.5

Georgia Offensive Stats & Trends

Georgia TEs have been targeted 36 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among SEC Teams

Georgia TEs have been targeted 36 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-most among Power Conference Teams

Georgia WRs have caught 33 of 46 passes (72% Reception Pct) in the 4th quarter this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 57%

Georgia Skill Players were targeted 10 times in close and late situations last week– most among SEC Teams

Tennessee Volunteers Defensive Stats & Trends

Tennessee allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (10 completions/26 attempts) last week– best in the SEC; Average: 59%

Tennessee opponents has averaged 8.7 Passing Attempts per TD (26 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Tennessee opponents has averaged 8.7 Passing Attempts per TD (26 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 3.9

Tennessee has allowed opponents to catch just 16 of 40 passes (40% Reception Pct) in close and late situations this season– best in the SEC; Average: 58%

Tennessee has not allowed a first down on any of their opponents’ 29 rush attempts on 3rd and long this season– best in the SEC; Average: 13%

Georgia Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends

Georgia has allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (44 completions/109 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 54%

Georgia allowed a Completion Pct of just 38% (26 completions/68 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 55%

Georgia has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (22 completions/57 attempts) on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 57%

Georgia has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 37 rushing attempts (5% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in the SEC; Average: 10%.

Georgia opponents averaged 32.6 Passing Attempts per TD (424 Pass Attempts/13 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 20.8