Texas vs Vanderbilt Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 9

BetMGM Betting Oct 24, 2024, 4:11 PM

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Vanderbilt running back Sedrick Alexander (28) runs for a short yardage gain against Mississippi during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Oxford, Miss., Saturday, Oct. 28, 2023. Mississippi won 33-7. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

(AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

The Texas is a -18.5 point favorite vs. Vanderbilt
The Texas vs. Vanderbilt Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
TV Channel: SECN

The Texas Longhorns (6-1) visit FirstBank Stadium to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores (5-2) on Oct. 26 in Nashville, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15pm EDT.

Texas is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -18.5 (-110).

The Texas vs. Vanderbilt Over/Under is 53.5 total points.

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Texas vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Texas	-18.5 -110	53.5 -110	-1100
Vanderbilt	+18.5 -110	53.5 -110	+700

Texas vs Vanderbilt Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 90.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas and Vanderbilt, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Texas vs Vanderbilt Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Vanderbilt will cover the spread with 86.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Texas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.25 Units / 5% ROI)
Texas has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+7.55 Units / 1% ROI)
Texas have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.50 Units / 29% ROI)
Texas have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.30 Units / 8% ROI)
Texas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Vanderbilt Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Vanderbilt has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+14.00 Units / 33% ROI)
Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+10.60 Units / 34% ROI)
Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 55% ROI)
Vanderbilt has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Vanderbilt has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Texas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texas Player Prop Bets Today

Gunnar Helm has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Isaiah Bond has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jaydon Blue has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)
Quinn Ewers has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Matthew Golden has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Vanderbilt players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Vanderbilt Player Prop Best Bets Today

Sedrick Alexander has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Diego Pavia has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Quincy Skinner Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Diego Pavia has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Junior Sherrill has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas is 5-2 against the spread this college football season (+2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI).

Texas is 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.15 Units / 0.26% ROI
Texas is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
Texas is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI

Vanderbilt Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Vanderbilt is 5-2 against the spread this college football season (+2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI).

Vanderbilt is 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.5 Units / 30.59% ROI
Vanderbilt is 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
Vanderbilt is 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Vanderbilt

Texas is 13-1 (.929) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .531

Texas is 13-1 (.929) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .593

Texas is 13-1 (.929) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .708

Texas is 15-1 (.938) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .722

Vanderbilt: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

Vanderbilt is 3-9 (.250) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .522

Vanderbilt is 4-11 (.267) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-12th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .460

Vanderbilt is 3-9 (.250) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: .458

Vanderbilt is 3-11 (.214) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .441

Matchup Notes for Texas vs. Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt’s TEs has gained 541 yards on 40 receptions (13.5 YPR) this season — 4th-best among SEC TEs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 7.7 Yards Per Reception this season — best among SEC defenses.

Vanderbilt has gained 1,405 yards on 101 receptions (13.9 YPR) this season — T-18th-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 7.7 Yards Per Reception this season — best among SEC defenses.

Vanderbilt’s WRs has averaged 14.1 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 10.5 RAC since the 2023 season — T-best among SEC defenses.

Texas has 476 receptions in 21 games (22.7 per game) since the 2023 season — T-24th-best among FBS skill players. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 22.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among P5 defenses.

Texas has 476 receptions in 21 games (22.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among SEC skill players. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 22.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — worst among SEC defenses.

Texas’s offense has thrown for 6,116 passing yards in 21 games (291.2 YPG) since the 2023 season — 13th-best among FBS offenses. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 255.8 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — worst among SEC defenses.

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas WRs have averaged 22.3 yards per reception (646 yards/29 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.5

Texas QBs have 11 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Texas Skill Players have 32 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

Vanderbilt Offensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt’s WRs has averaged 14.1 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 10.5 RAC since the 2023 season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.

Vanderbilt has 318 receptions in 19 games (just 16.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among SEC skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed 20.4 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among SEC defenses.

Texas Longhorns Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas has allowed no passing TDs (14 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Texas has allowed no passing TDs (14 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best in FBS; Average: 3.9

Texas has allowed no passing TDs (14 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best in the SEC; Average: 5.1

Texas has allowed one passing TD (206 pass attempts) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 29.9

Texas has allowed just 7.7 yards per completion (929 yards/121 completions) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 11.3

Vanderbilt Commodores Defensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt has sacked opposing QBs on just 6% of pass attempts (35/628) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 8%

Vanderbilt has allowed a Completion Pct of 67% (423 completions/628 attempts) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Vanderbilt has allowed 7.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (7,779 yards / 1,042 touches) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 6.5

Vanderbilt has sacked opposing QBs on just 7% of pass attempts (14/207) this season– 3rd-worst in the SEC; Average: 8%

Vanderbilt has allowed a Completion Pct of 67% (423 completions/628 attempts) since the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 61%