Tulane vs Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Gasparilla Bowl

BetMGM Betting Dec 12, 2024, 11:35 AM

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Texas A&M linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (45) wraps up Florida running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (2) for a two-yard loss during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)

(AP Photo/Sam Craft)

Florida is a -14 point favorite vs. Tulane
Tulane vs. Florida Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN2

The Tulane Green Wave (9-4) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Florida Gators (7-5) on Dec. 20 in Tampa, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

Florida is a betting favorite in the Gasparilla Bowl, with the spread sitting at -14 (-110).

The Tulane vs. Florida Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

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Tulane vs. Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Tulane	+14 -110	49.5 -110	+400
Florida	-14 -110	49.5 -110	-550

Tulane vs Florida Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Florida will win this game with 79.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Tulane and Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Tulane vs Florida Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida will cover the spread with 70.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Tulane Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Tulane have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
Tulane has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.75 Units / 50% ROI)
Tulane has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.55 Units / 23% ROI)
Tulane has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
Tulane has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.20 Units / 18% ROI)

Florida Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Florida have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 70% ROI)
Florida have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 68% ROI)
Florida has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+6.60 Units / 129% ROI)
Florida have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 57% ROI)
Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 61% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Tulane players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Tulane Player Prop Bets Today

Yulkeith Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Darian Mensah has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Alex Bauman has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Makhi Hughes has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Darian Mensah has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Florida players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Florida Player Prop Best Bets Today

Eugene Wilson III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
DJ Lagway has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Graham Mertz has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Elijhah Badger has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
DJ Lagway has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 43% ROI)

Tulane Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Tulane is 9-4 against the spread this college football season (+4.6 Units / 32.06% ROI).

Tulane is 9-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -0.13% ROI
Tulane is 8-5 when betting the Over for +2.5 Units / 17.48% ROI
Tulane is 5-8 when betting the Under for -3.8 Units / -26.57% ROI

Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida is 8-4 against the spread this college football season (+3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI).

Florida is 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.6 Units / 24.08% ROI
Florida is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
Florida is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI

Tulane: Keys to the Game vs. Florida

Tulane is 10-3 (.769) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .381

Tulane is undefeated (8-0) when not losing a fumble this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .535

Tulane is 13-1 (.929) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .525

Tulane is 19-2 (.905) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .581

Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Tulane

Florida is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .722

Florida is 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .735

Florida is 13-2 (.867) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– 30th-best in FBS; Average: .749

Florida is 7-2 (.778) when making 7 or more explosive plays this season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .631

Matchup Notes for Tulane vs. Florida

Florida’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.3% of 301 attempts this season — 10th-best among FBS offenses. Tulane’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.3% of attempts this season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

Florida’s TEs has gained 368 yards on 37 receptions (just 9.9 YPR) this season — T-3rd-worst among SEC TEs. Tulane’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception this season — T-9th-best among FBS defenses.

Florida’s WRs has averaged 13.8 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-34th-best among FBS WRs. Tulane’s defense has allowed just 12.1 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.

Tulane’s WRs has averaged 15.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-6th-best among FBS WRs. Florida’s defense has allowed 12.8 RAC since the 2023 season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Tulane has 424 receptions in 27 games (just 15.7 per game) since the 2023 season — T-24th-worst among FBS skill players. Florida’s defense has allowed just 17.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 5th-best among SEC defenses.

Tulane’s WRs has averaged 15.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-6th-best among FBS WRs. Florida’s defense has allowed 12.8 RAC since the 2023 season — worst among SEC defenses.

Tulane Offensive Stats & Trends

Tulane’s WRs has averaged 15.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-6th-best among FBS WRs. Florida’s defense has allowed 12.8 RAC since the 2023 season — worst among SEC defenses.

Tulane’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 15.4% of 299 attempts this season — 6th-best among FBS offenses. Florida’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.8% of attempts this season — 6th-worst among FBS defenses.

Tulane has averaged 13.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-10th-best among FBS skill players. Florida’s defense has allowed 12.8 RAC since the 2023 season — worst among SEC defenses.

Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida has gained 2,629 yards on 186 receptions (14.1 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among SEC skill players. Tulane’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception this season — T-9th-best among FBS defenses.

Florida’s WRs has gained 2,123 yards on 128 receptions (16.6 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among Power 5 WRs. Tulane’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception this season — T-9th-best among FBS defenses.

Tulane Green Wave Defensive Stats & Trends

Tulane has allowed 167.9 Passing Yards per game (2,183/13) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 219.8

Tulane has tackled opponents for a loss on 20 of 102 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

Tulane has allowed 2.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (191 yards / 73 touches) in the Red Zone this season– T-6th-best in FBS; Average: 3.8

Tulane opponents has averaged 30.5 Passing Attempts per TD (366 Pass Attempts/12 Passing TDs) this season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.2

Tulane has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (12 completions/31 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 9th-best in FBS; Average: 54%

Florida Gators Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida allowed passes of 40+ yards on 20 of 325 attempts (6%) in the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%

Florida defense has allowed 54 completions for 20 or more yards this season– most in the SEC

Florida averaged 0.25 interceptions per game (3/12) in the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 0.87

Florida allowed 6.0 touchdowns per interception (18 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) in the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

Florida opponents has averaged 9.0 Passing Attempts per TD (27 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: 3.9