UNLV vs Boise St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Mountain West Championship

BetMGM Betting Dec 03, 2024, 3:35 PM

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Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty runs for a short gain in the first half of an NCAA college football game against Colorado State on Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in Fort Collins, Colo. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Boise St is a -4 point favorite vs. UNLV
UNLV vs. Boise State Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
TV Channel: FOX

The UNLV Rebels (10-2) visit Albertsons Stadium to take on the Boise State Broncos (11-1) on Dec. 6 in Boise, ID. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST.

Boise St is a betting favorite in Week 15, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).

The UNLV vs. Boise State Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

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UNLV vs. Boise State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
UNLV	+4 -110	58.5 -110	+155
Boise State	-4 -110	58.5 -110	-190

UNLV vs Boise State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Boise State will win this game with 59.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both UNLV and Boise St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UNLV vs Boise State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Boise State will cover the spread with 53.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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UNLV Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

UNLV has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 away games (+8.15 Units / 37% ROI)
UNLV has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+7.15 Units / 33% ROI)
UNLV have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.45 Units / 19% ROI)
UNLV have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
UNLV has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)

Boise State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Boise State has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.00 Units / 5% ROI)
Boise State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.65 Units / 14% ROI)
Boise State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 31% ROI)
Boise State has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
Boise State have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.70 Units / 35% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for UNLV players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UNLV Player Prop Bets Today

Hajj-Malik Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Ricky White III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Hajj-Malik Williams has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Jai’Den Thomas has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jacob De Jesus has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Boise State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Boise State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Ashton Jeanty has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Matt Lauter has hit the Receptions Over in his last game (+1.25 Units / 125% ROI)
Maddux Madsen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Matt Lauter has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Ashton Jeanty has hit the Receptions Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 56% ROI)

UNLV Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UNLV is 7-5 against the spread this college football season (+1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI).

UNLV is 9-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.05 Units / 15.59% ROI
UNLV is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
UNLV is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI

Boise State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Boise St is 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.6 Units / 19.62% ROI).

Boise State is 10-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +9 Units / 5.63% ROI
Boise State is 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
Boise State is 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

UNLV: Keys to the Game vs. Boise State

UNLV is undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .611

UNLV is 7-2 (.778) when not losing a fumble this season– T-12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .533

UNLV is 15-5 (.750) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .590

UNLV is undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .525

Boise State: Keys to the Game vs. UNLV

Boise State is undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .388

Boise State is undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .433

Boise State is 8-1 (.889) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

Boise State is 12-4 (.750) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-8th-best in FBS; Average: .442

Matchup Notes for UNLV vs. Boise State

Boise State’s RBs has 3 rushing touchdowns per game this season — best among FBS RBs. UNLV’s defense has allowed just 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.

Boise State’s RBs has rushed for 2,800 yards on 404 carries (6.9 YPC) this season — best among FBS RBs. UNLV’s defense have allowed just 3.2 YPC this season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.

Boise State’s QBs has rushed for 204 yards on 49 carries (4.2 YPC) this season — T-27th-best among FBS teams. UNLV’s defense have allowed just 3.2 YPC this season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.

UNLV’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.6% of 261 attempts this season — T-23rd-best among FBS offenses. Boise State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.6% of attempts this season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV’s offense has thrown for 2,159 passing yards in 12 games (just 179.9 YPG) this season — 18th-worst among FBS offenses. Boise State’s defense has allowed 258.2 passing yards per game this season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV’s QBs has thrown for 2,117 passing yards in 12 games (just 176.4 YPG) this season — 17th-worst among FBS teams. Boise State’s defense has allowed 258.2 passing yards per game this season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV Offensive Stats & Trends

UNLV RBs have rushed for 7 TDs on 64 carries (9.1 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 7th-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.5

UNLV has averaged 13.5 yards after the catch this season — T-18th-best among FBS skill players. Boise State’s defense has allowed 12.5 RAC this season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Boise State Offensive Stats & Trends

Boise State RBs have averaged 233.3 rushing yards per game (2,800/12) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 127.3

Boise State RBs have rushed for 15 TDs in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Boise State RBs have averaged 6.9 Yards per Carry (2,800 yards/404 carries) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Boise State RBs have averaged 6.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (6,320 yards / 940 touches) since the 2023 season– T-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Boise State RBs have averaged 7.4 Yards per Carry (922 yards/124 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– T-3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2

UNLV Rebels Defensive Stats & Trends

UNLV has tackled opponents for a loss on just 12 of 138 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

UNLV allowed passes of 20+ yards on 67 of 398 attempts (17%) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 10%

UNLV has tackled opponents for a loss on 82 of 376 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

UNLV has tackled opponents for a loss on 82 of 376 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) this season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

UNLV allowed 67 receptions for 20+ yards in the 2023 season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Boise State Broncos Defensive Stats & Trends

Boise State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (46/398) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Boise State has averaged 3.8 sacks per game this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Boise State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (46/398) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 7%

Boise State has averaged 3.8 sacks per game this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 2.1

Boise State has tackled opponents for a loss on 83 of 377 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.