- The East Carolina is a -4 point favorite vs. UTSA
- The UTSA vs. East Carolina Total(Over/Under): 56.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The UTSA Roadrunners (2-2) visit Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium to take on the East Carolina Pirates (2-2) on Sep. 28 in Greenville, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EDT.
East Carolina is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).
The UTSA vs. East Carolina Over/Under is 56.5 total points.
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UTSA vs. East Carolina Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| UTSA | +4 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +155 |
| East Carolina | -4 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -190 |
UTSA vs East Carolina Prediction:
The winning team model predicts East Carolina will win this game with 62.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both UTSA and East Carolina, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
UTSA vs East Carolina Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts East Carolina will cover the spread with 57.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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UTSA Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- UTSA has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.05 Units / 78% ROI)
- UTSA has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- UTSA has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- UTSA has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- UTSA have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.70 Units / 21% ROI)
East Carolina Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- East Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- East Carolina has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- East Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- East Carolina have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- East Carolina have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for UTSA players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best UTSA Player Prop Bets Today
- Devin McCuin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kevorian Barnes has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for East Carolina players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best East Carolina Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Rahjai Harris has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
UTSA Against the Spread (ATS) Record
UTSA is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
East Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record
East Carolina is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI).
UTSA: Keys to the Game vs. East Carolina
UTSA is 6-3 (.667) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .547
UTSA is 11-3 (.786) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .585
UTSA is 10-1 (.909) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– 9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .714
UTSA is 10-5 (.667) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .526
East Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. UTSA
East Carolina is winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .396
East Carolina is winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .452
East Carolina is 1-8 (.111) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .463
East Carolina is 1-8 (.111) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst in FBS; Average: .547
Matchup Notes for UTSA vs. East Carolina
East Carolina’s RBs have just 11.5 receiving yards per game this season — T-26th-worst among FBS RBs. UTSA’s defense has allowed 266.2 receiving yards per game this season — 21st-worst among FBS defenses.
East Carolina’s QBs has rushed for 41 yards on 33 carries (just 1.2 YPC) this season — T-31st-worst among FBS teams. UTSA’s defense have allowed just 3.2 YPC this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.
UTSA’s RBs has rushed for 509 yards on 118 carries (just 4.3 YPC) this season — T-29th-worst among FBS RBs. East Carolina’s defense have allowed just 3.0 YPC to RBs this season — T-7th-best among FBS defenses.
UTSA’s RBs has rushed for 509 yards on 118 carries (just 4.3 YPC) this season — T-29th-worst among FBS RBs. East Carolina’s defense have allowed just 2.5 YPC this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.
UTSA’s QBs has rushed for 28 yards on 31 carries (just 0.9 YPC) this season — T-24th-worst among FBS teams. East Carolina’s defense have allowed just 2.5 YPC this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.
UTSA Offensive Stats & Trends
UTSA Skill Players have averaged 22.7 receptions per game (386/17) since the 2023 season– 24th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 18.9
UTSA Skill Players have averaged just 10.7 yards per reception (719 yards/67 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-24th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1
UTSA WRs have averaged just 12.3 yards per reception (3,259 yards/265 catches) since the 2023 season– T-31st-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.3
UTSA WRs have averaged 15.2 receptions per game (61/4) this season– T-30th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.6
UTSA Skill Players have averaged just 7.4 yards per reception (258 yards/35 catches) on 1st down this season– 3rd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.7
East Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends
East Carolina TEs have 6 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
East Carolina TEs have 103 receiving yards in close and late situations this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
East Carolina WRs have averaged a touchdown every 34.8 receptions (209 Rec/6 TDs) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.8
East Carolina Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 24.7 receptions (296 Rec/12 TDs) since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4
East Carolina WRs averaged a touchdown every 37.0 receptions (148 Rec/4 TDs) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.9
UTSA Roadrunners Defensive Stats & Trends
UTSA has allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (19 completions/52 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 53%
UTSA has allowed a Completion Pct of just 37% (7 completions/19 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%
UTSA has allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (19 completions/52 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%
UTSA has averaged 3.2 sacks per game since the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0
UTSA has tackled opponents for a loss on 33 of 151 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) this season– 14th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
East Carolina Pirates Defensive Stats & Trends
East Carolina has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 167 carries (83.5 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 20
East Carolina allowed 4 TD passes in the Red Zone last week– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
East Carolina allowed 4 TD passes in the Red Zone last week– T-most in FBS
East Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 17 rushing attempts (41% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
East Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 17 rushing attempts (41% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.
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