UTSA vs East Carolina Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

BetMGM Betting Sep 27, 2024, 12:03 PM

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FILE - East Carolina head coach Mike Houston watches from the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Cincinnati in Greenville, N.C., Friday, Nov. 26, 2021. East Carolina will host No. 13 North Carolina State on Saturday to open the season.

(AP Photo/Karl B DeBlaker)

The East Carolina is a -4 point favorite vs. UTSA
The UTSA vs. East Carolina Total(Over/Under): 56.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

The UTSA Roadrunners (2-2) visit Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium to take on the East Carolina Pirates (2-2) on Sep. 28 in Greenville, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EDT.

East Carolina is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).

The UTSA vs. East Carolina Over/Under is 56.5 total points.

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UTSA vs. East Carolina Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
UTSA	+4 -110	56.5 -110	+155
East Carolina	-4 -110	56.5 -110	-190

UTSA vs East Carolina Prediction:

The winning team model predicts East Carolina will win this game with 62.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both UTSA and East Carolina, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UTSA vs East Carolina Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts East Carolina will cover the spread with 57.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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UTSA Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

UTSA has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.05 Units / 78% ROI)
UTSA has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 17% ROI)
UTSA has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 11% ROI)
UTSA has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 27% ROI)
UTSA have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.70 Units / 21% ROI)

East Carolina Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

East Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
East Carolina has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 52% ROI)
East Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 32% ROI)
East Carolina have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.10 Units / 24% ROI)
East Carolina have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for UTSA players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UTSA Player Prop Bets Today

Devin McCuin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kevorian Barnes has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for East Carolina players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best East Carolina Player Prop Best Bets Today

Rahjai Harris has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

UTSA Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UTSA is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).

East Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record

East Carolina is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI).

UTSA: Keys to the Game vs. East Carolina

UTSA is 6-3 (.667) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .547

UTSA is 11-3 (.786) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .585

UTSA is 10-1 (.909) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– 9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .714

UTSA is 10-5 (.667) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .526

East Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. UTSA

East Carolina is winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .396

East Carolina is winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .452

East Carolina is 1-8 (.111) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .463

East Carolina is 1-8 (.111) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst in FBS; Average: .547

Matchup Notes for UTSA vs. East Carolina

East Carolina’s RBs have just 11.5 receiving yards per game this season — T-26th-worst among FBS RBs. UTSA’s defense has allowed 266.2 receiving yards per game this season — 21st-worst among FBS defenses.

East Carolina’s QBs has rushed for 41 yards on 33 carries (just 1.2 YPC) this season — T-31st-worst among FBS teams. UTSA’s defense have allowed just 3.2 YPC this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.

UTSA’s RBs has rushed for 509 yards on 118 carries (just 4.3 YPC) this season — T-29th-worst among FBS RBs. East Carolina’s defense have allowed just 3.0 YPC to RBs this season — T-7th-best among FBS defenses.

UTSA’s RBs has rushed for 509 yards on 118 carries (just 4.3 YPC) this season — T-29th-worst among FBS RBs. East Carolina’s defense have allowed just 2.5 YPC this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.

UTSA’s QBs has rushed for 28 yards on 31 carries (just 0.9 YPC) this season — T-24th-worst among FBS teams. East Carolina’s defense have allowed just 2.5 YPC this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.

UTSA Offensive Stats & Trends

UTSA Skill Players have averaged 22.7 receptions per game (386/17) since the 2023 season– 24th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 18.9

UTSA Skill Players have averaged just 10.7 yards per reception (719 yards/67 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-24th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

UTSA WRs have averaged just 12.3 yards per reception (3,259 yards/265 catches) since the 2023 season– T-31st-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 13.3

UTSA WRs have averaged 15.2 receptions per game (61/4) this season– T-30th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.6

UTSA Skill Players have averaged just 7.4 yards per reception (258 yards/35 catches) on 1st down this season– 3rd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.7

East Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends

East Carolina TEs have 6 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

East Carolina TEs have 103 receiving yards in close and late situations this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

East Carolina WRs have averaged a touchdown every 34.8 receptions (209 Rec/6 TDs) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.8

East Carolina Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 24.7 receptions (296 Rec/12 TDs) since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

East Carolina WRs averaged a touchdown every 37.0 receptions (148 Rec/4 TDs) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.9

UTSA Roadrunners Defensive Stats & Trends

UTSA has allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (19 completions/52 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 53%

UTSA has allowed a Completion Pct of just 37% (7 completions/19 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

UTSA has allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (19 completions/52 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%

UTSA has averaged 3.2 sacks per game since the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

UTSA has tackled opponents for a loss on 33 of 151 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) this season– 14th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

East Carolina Pirates Defensive Stats & Trends

East Carolina has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 167 carries (83.5 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 20

East Carolina allowed 4 TD passes in the Red Zone last week– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

East Carolina allowed 4 TD passes in the Red Zone last week– T-most in FBS

East Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 17 rushing attempts (41% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

East Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 17 rushing attempts (41% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.