Vanderbilt vs Auburn Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Nov 01, 2024, 3:24 PM

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Auburn running back Jarquez Hunter (27) carries the ball against Alabama during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022, in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)

(AP Photo/Butch Dill)

Auburn is a -6.5 point favorite vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt vs. Auburn Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
TV Channel: SECN

The Vanderbilt Commodores (5-3) visit Pat Dye Field at Jordan-Hare Stadium to take on the Auburn Tigers (3-5) on Nov. 2 in Auburn, AL. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:45pm EDT.

Auburn is a betting favorite in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Vanderbilt vs. Auburn Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

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Vanderbilt vs. Auburn Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Vanderbilt	+6.5 -110	48.5 -110	+200
Auburn	-6.5 -110	48.5 -110	-250

Vanderbilt vs Auburn Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Auburn will win this game with 67.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Vanderbilt and Auburn, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Vanderbilt vs Auburn Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Auburn will cover the spread with 53.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Vanderbilt Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+10.60 Units / 34% ROI)
Vanderbilt has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games (+10.50 Units / 20% ROI)
Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 37% ROI)
Vanderbilt have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Vanderbilt has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.60 Units / 13% ROI)

Auburn Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Auburn has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.80 Units / 47% ROI)
Auburn has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)
Auburn have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.60 Units / 18% ROI)
Auburn has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Auburn have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.45 Units / 3% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Vanderbilt players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Vanderbilt Player Prop Bets Today

Diego Pavia has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.65 Units / 83% ROI)
Quincy Skinner Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Diego Pavia has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Junior Sherrill has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Eli Stowers has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Auburn players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Auburn Player Prop Best Bets Today

Payton Thorne has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Rivaldo Fairweather has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jarquez Hunter has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
Cam Coleman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Payton Thorne has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Vanderbilt Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Vanderbilt is 6-2 against the spread this college football season (+3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI).

Vanderbilt is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.5 Units / 27.89% ROI
Vanderbilt is 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 31.82% ROI
Vanderbilt is 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / -39.77% ROI

Auburn Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Auburn is 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Auburn is 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.65 Units / -21.43% ROI
Auburn is 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
Auburn is 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI

Vanderbilt: Keys to the Game vs. Auburn

Vanderbilt is 4-11 (.267) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-12th-worst in FBS; Average: .538

Vanderbilt is 3-10 (.231) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 16th-worst in FBS; Average: .457

Vanderbilt is 6-12 (.333) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-14th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .494

Vanderbilt is 7-7 (.500) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-35th-worst in FBS; Average: .624

Auburn: Keys to the Game vs. Vanderbilt

Auburn is 1-8 (.111) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .531

Auburn is winless (0-10) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .286

Auburn is 1-9 (.100) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .494

Auburn is 5-12 (.294) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .495

Matchup Notes for Vanderbilt vs. Auburn

Auburn’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.7% of 229 attempts this season — T-25th-best among FBS offenses. Vanderbilt’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.5% of attempts this season — T-35th-best among FBS defenses.

Vanderbilt’s RBs has rushed for 626 yards on 158 carries (just 4.0 YPC) this season — T-14th-worst among FBS RBs. Auburn’s defense have allowed just 3.2 YPC this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.

Vanderbilt’s RBs has rushed for 626 yards on 158 carries (just 4.0 YPC) this season — T-14th-worst among FBS RBs. Auburn’s defense have allowed just 3.8 YPC to RBs this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.

Vanderbilt’s RBs has 0.4 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-10th-best among FBS RBs. Auburn’s defense has allowed just 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-9th-best among FBS defenses.

Vanderbilt Offensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt WRs have averaged just 6.4 receptions per game (51/8) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.6

Vanderbilt TEs have caught 6 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-most among FBS Teams

Vanderbilt WRs have been targeted 12 times in the 1st quarter this season– fewest among SEC Teams

Vanderbilt RBs were targeted 4 times on 3rd down last week– T-most among FBS Teams

Vanderbilt TEs have picked up first downs on 13 receptions on 3rd down this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Auburn Offensive Stats & Trends

Auburn WRs have averaged 21.8 yards per reception (174 yards/8 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 11.5

Auburn WRs have averaged 23.4 yards per reception (281 yards/12 catches) in short yardage situations this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.8

Auburn RBs averaged 9.1 Yards per Carry (318 yards/35 carries) last week– 5th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Auburn WRs have averaged 21.2 yards per reception (381 yards/18 catches) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 12.0

Vanderbilt Commodores Defensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt has allowed 7.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (506 yards / 64 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.2

Vanderbilt has allowed 7.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (506 yards / 64 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 5.2

Vanderbilt has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 7 of 38 attempts (18%) on 3rd and long this season– best in the SEC; Average: 9%

Vanderbilt has forced 2 fumbles on 240 carries (120.0 Carries Per Fumble) this season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 42.4

Vanderbilt has allowed 13 TD passes this season– 2nd-most in the SEC

Auburn Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Auburn opponents has averaged 42.7 Passing Attempts per TD (256 Pass Attempts/6 Passing TDs) this season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 21.3

Auburn has allowed a Completion Pct of just 55% (141 completions/256 attempts) this season– 2nd-best in the SEC; Average: 61%

Auburn has allowed 2.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (405 yards / 143 touches) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: 3.7

Auburn allowed 224.0 yards from scrimmage per game last week– best in the SEC; Average: 397.1

Auburn has allowed 5 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-3rd-most in the SEC