- Liberty is a -1.5 point favorite vs. Western Kentucky
- Western Kentucky vs. Liberty Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-3) visit Williams Stadium to take on the Liberty Flames (7-2) on Nov. 23 in Lynchburg, VA. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST.
Liberty is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Western Kentucky vs. Liberty Over/Under is 57.5 total points.
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Western Kentucky vs. Liberty Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Western Kentucky | +1.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | -105 |
| Liberty | -1.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | -115 |
Western Kentucky vs Liberty Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Western Kentucky will win this game with 54.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Western Kentucky and Liberty, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Western Kentucky vs Liberty Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Liberty will cover the spread with 73.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Western Kentucky Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+4.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Western Kentucky have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.60 Units / 17% ROI)
Liberty Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Liberty has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.65 Units / 6% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 10 games (+1.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.25 Units / 2% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Western Kentucky players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Western Kentucky Player Prop Bets Today
- Elijah Young has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kisean Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- River Helms has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Easton Messer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Liberty players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Liberty Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kaidon Salter has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Tyson Mobley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kaidon Salter has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Billy Lucas has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kaidon Salter has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Western Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Western Kentucky is 6-4 against the spread this college football season (+1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI).
- Western Kentucky is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 0.6% ROI
- Western Kentucky is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Western Kentucky is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
Liberty Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Liberty is 2-7 against the spread this college football season (-5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI).
- Liberty is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -35.35 Units / -32.45% ROI
- Liberty is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -5% ROI
- Liberty is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.08% ROI
Western Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Liberty
Western Kentucky is undefeated (7-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .572
Western Kentucky is 13-8 (.619) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .466
Western Kentucky is 9-4 (.692) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .598
Western Kentucky is 8-2 (.800) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .626
Liberty: Keys to the Game vs. Western Kentucky
Liberty is 14-3 (.824) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .380
Liberty is undefeated (15-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .673
Liberty is 7-1 (.875) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .487
Liberty is 11-2 (.786) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .401
Matchup Notes for Western Kentucky vs. Liberty
Liberty’s offense has thrown for 1,714 passing yards in 9 games (just 190.4 YPG) this season — 32nd-worst among FBS offenses. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 187.0 passing yards per game this season — 25th-best among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s QBs has thrown for 1,714 passing yards in 9 games (just 190.4 YPG) this season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 187.0 passing yards per game this season — 25th-best among FBS defenses.
Liberty’s RBs has 11 receptions in 9 games (just 1.2 per game) this season — T-3rd-worst among FBS RBs. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 15.3 receptions per game this season — 5th-best among NonP5 defenses.
Western Kentucky has 2.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-20th-best among FBS skill players. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-4th-best among NonP5 defenses.
Western Kentucky’s offense has averaged 2.2 passing TDs per game this season — T-21st-best among FBS offenses. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 0.8 passing TDs per game this season — T-4th-best among NonP5 defenses.
Western Kentucky’s offense has averaged 2.2 passing TDs per game this season — T-21st-best among FBS offenses. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 0.8 passing TDs per game this season — T-9th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends
Western Kentucky RBs have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams
Western Kentucky has 2.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-20th-best among FBS skill players. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-4th-best among NonP5 defenses.
Western Kentucky’s offense has averaged 2.2 passing TDs per game this season — T-21st-best among FBS offenses. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 0.8 passing TDs per game this season — T-4th-best among NonP5 defenses.
Western Kentucky’s offense has averaged 2.2 passing TDs per game this season — T-21st-best among FBS offenses. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 0.8 passing TDs per game this season — T-9th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s WRs has 1.6 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-22nd-best among FBS WRs. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-4th-best among NonP5 defenses.
Liberty Offensive Stats & Trends
Liberty Skill Players have averaged 18.3 yards per reception (495 yards/27 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9
Liberty WRs have averaged 21.8 yards per reception (609 yards/28 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.4
Liberty’s offense has thrown for 1,714 passing yards in 9 games (just 190.4 YPG) this season — 32nd-worst among FBS offenses. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 187.0 passing yards per game this season — 25th-best among FBS defenses.
Liberty RBs have averaged 189.3 rushing yards per game (1,704/9) this season– 7th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 127.0
Liberty rushed for 5 TDs in the Red Zone last week– most among FBS Offenses
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Defensive Stats & Trends
Western Kentucky allowed just 5.5 yards per completion (66 yards/12 completions) last week– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.9
Western Kentucky has tackled opponents for a loss on just 54 of 411 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) this season– T-28th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
Western Kentucky has allowed a Completion Pct of just 45% (18 completions/40 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%
Western Kentucky has allowed a Completion Pct of just 49% (43 completions/87 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
Western Kentucky allowed just 5.5 yards per completion (66 yards/12 completions) last week– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 11.6
Liberty Flames Defensive Stats & Trends
Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.4
Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1
Liberty had 21 interceptions in the 2023 season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Liberty has allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (8 completions/22 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 54%
Liberty has allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (8 completions/22 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%
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