- Western Kentucky is a -18.5 point favorite vs. New Mexico State
- Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (6-2) visit Aggie Memorial Stadium to take on the New Mexico State Aggies (2-6) on Nov. 9 in Las Cruces, NM. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:00pm EST.
Western Kentucky is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -18.5 (-110).
The Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State Over/Under is 51.5 total points.
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Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Western Kentucky | -18.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1000 |
| New Mexico State | +18.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +650 |
Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Western Kentucky will win this game with 90.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Western Kentucky and New Mexico State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts New Mexico State will cover the spread with 85.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky and all games with BetMGM
Western Kentucky Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Western Kentucky have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 36% ROI)
New Mexico State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- New Mexico State has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 13 games (+10.10 Units / 62% ROI)
- New Mexico State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 13 games (+6.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- New Mexico State have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- New Mexico State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 9 games (+2.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- New Mexico State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.90 Units / 34% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Western Kentucky players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Western Kentucky Player Prop Bets Today
- Elijah Young has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kisean Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Easton Messer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- River Helms has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for New Mexico State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best New Mexico State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- PJ Johnson III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Mike Washington has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- TJ Pride has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Western Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Western Kentucky is 6-2 against the spread this college football season (+3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI).
- Western Kentucky is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 7.55% ROI
- Western Kentucky is 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
- Western Kentucky is 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
New Mexico State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
New Mexico State is 2-6 against the spread this college football season (-4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI).
- New Mexico State is 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -12.09% ROI
- New Mexico State is 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 31.64% ROI
- New Mexico State is 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.45 Units / -39.43% ROI
Western Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico State
Western Kentucky is 10-3 (.769) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .607
Western Kentucky is 8-5 (.615) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .433
Western Kentucky is 8-4 (.667) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .521
Western Kentucky is 5-1 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .517
New Mexico State: Keys to the Game vs. Western Kentucky
New Mexico State is 11-4 (.688) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .551
New Mexico State is 8-2 (.727) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .477
New Mexico State is 9-5 (.600) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .468
New Mexico State is 1-5 (.143) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-5th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .437
Matchup Notes for Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State
New Mexico State’s RBs has averaged 10.3 yards after the catch this season — T-28th-best among FBS RBs. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed 12.8 RAC this season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State’s RBs has rushed for 2,920 yards on 513 carries (5.7 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-16th-best among FBS RBs. Western Kentucky’s defense have allowed 4.6 YPC since the 2023 season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State has averaged just 10.4 yards after the catch this season — T-9th-worst among FBS skill players. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed 12.8 RAC this season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s WRs has 388 receptions in 21 games (18.5 per game) since the 2023 season — T-7th-best among FBS WRs. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 13.9 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-23rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s QBs has thrown for 2,194 passing yards in 8 games (274.2 YPG) this season — 27th-best among FBS teams. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 239.0 passing yards per game this season — 35th-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 2,230 passing yards in 8 games (278.8 YPG) this season — 26th-best among FBS offenses. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 239.0 passing yards per game this season — 35th-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends
Western Kentucky’s WRs has 388 receptions in 21 games (18.5 per game) since the 2023 season — T-7th-best among FBS WRs. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 13.9 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-23rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s QBs has thrown for 2,194 passing yards in 8 games (274.2 YPG) this season — 27th-best among FBS teams. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 239.0 passing yards per game this season — 35th-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s offense has thrown for 2,230 passing yards in 8 games (278.8 YPG) this season — 26th-best among FBS offenses. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 239.0 passing yards per game this season — 35th-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s WRs has averaged just 12.1 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-27th-worst among FBS WRs. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 12.5 RAC since the 2023 season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s QBs has thrown for 5,992 passing yards in 21 games (285.3 YPG) since the 2023 season — 16th-best among FBS teams. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 247.1 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 21st-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State Offensive Stats & Trends
New Mexico State Skill Players have caught just 88 of 192 passes (46% Reception Pct) this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 64%
New Mexico State WRs have averaged a touchdown every 30.0 receptions (60 Rec/2 TDs) this season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1
New Mexico State WRs have caught just 60 of 142 passes (42% Reception Pct) this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 61%
New Mexico State Skill Players have averaged just 11.0 receptions per game (88/8) this season– 5th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.9
New Mexico State RBs have averaged 13.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (165 yards / 12 touches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.1
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Defensive Stats & Trends
Western Kentucky has allowed a Completion Pct of just 51% (40 completions/79 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
Western Kentucky has sacked opposing QBs on 8% of pass attempts (18/216) this season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: 7%
Western Kentucky has allowed 12.8 yards per completion (1,675 yards/131 completions) this season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: 11.8
Western Kentucky did not allow a pass completion for 20+ yards (26 attempts) last week– T-best in FBS; Average: 10%
Western Kentucky has allowed 2.0 touchdowns per interception (4 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.0
New Mexico State Aggies Defensive Stats & Trends
New Mexico State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 15 of 239 attempts (6%) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%
New Mexico State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 15 of 239 attempts (6%) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 2%
New Mexico State has intercepted 10 of 717 attempts (71.7 pass attempts per int.) since the 2023 season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 36.5
New Mexico State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 35 of 332 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– 12th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
New Mexico State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 56 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: 11%.
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