- The Dodgers are -175 favorites vs the Reds
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Dustin May, 1.92 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft, 7.20 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet LA
The Los Angeles Dodgers (-175) visit Goodyear Ballpark to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+145) on Sunday, March 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Goodyear.
The Dodgers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Dodgers vs Reds Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Dodgers are 5-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 5-5 ATS.
Dodgers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Dodgers | -1.5 -110 | O 10.5 -115 | -175 |
Reds | +1.5 -110 | U 10.5 -105 | +145 |
Dodgers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 60.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Dodgers and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Edwin Rios has hit the RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+3.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Edwin Rios has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+3.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- Austin Barnes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+2.95 Units / 57% ROI)
- Edwin Rios has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+2.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Edwin Rios has hit the Runs Under in 5 of his last 7 away games (+1.80 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alejo Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 29% ROI)
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 97 of their last 163 games (+25.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 90 of their last 162 games (+17.65 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 93 games (+14.65 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 82 games (+12.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 83 away games (+12.70 Units / 14% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+16.41 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+12.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+6.30 Units / 17% ROI)
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 4-7 against the Run Line (-2.8 Units / -24.14% ROI).
- 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 4.88% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -3.28% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -2.92% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 5-5 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -3.64% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.5 Units / 13.57% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.65 Units / -24.2% ROI
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 23% (27/120) against Dustin May over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 30% — third Percentile.
Dustin May had a strike rate of just 61% (140/230) over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — tied for 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 65% — eighth Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft threw fastballs 77% of the time (989/1,286) in non-two strike counts last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft had an ERA of 8.37 (47.1 IP) against division opponents last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 3.93 — 0 Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to August 13rd, 2022 — Nick Lodolo has the longest active streak at 8.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 14% (28/202) against Graham Ashcraft on elevated fastballs last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Dodgers are 25-89 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .125.
The Dodgers are 100-20 (.833) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Dodgers are 124-68 (.646) on the road since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .462.
The Dodgers are 54-27 (.667) on the road last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Reds are just 6-78 (.071) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Reds are just 6-176 (.033) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Reds are just 11-76 (.126) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Reds are just 24-83 (.224) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters had an OBP of .337 (4,473 PA’s) against RHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Dodgers hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .336 (8,886 PA’s) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .764 (3,757 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .694.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters slugged just .366 against RHP last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .334 (6,050 PA’s) at home since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Reds hitters had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.80 (1435.1 IP) on the road since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
Dodgers pitchers had an ERA of 2.54 (718.1 IP) on the road last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
The Dodgers allowed 2.90 runs per game (235/81) on the road last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
The Dodgers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.3 MPH since the start of the 2021 season (7,469 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,229 of 12,419 batters (10%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers walked 612 of 6,220 batters (10%) last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,442 of 14,544 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .299 against Reds pitchers with runners on base last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds vs. Dodgers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
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