Fulham Prediction: 2024 EPL Betting Preview

After a top-half finish in 2022, Fulham expectedly fell off last season. 

The Cottagers, who overperformed their expected goal differential by 19.4 goals two years ago, fell from 10th to 13th in 2023. 

This season, Fulham has to cope with two key departures: defender Tosin Adarabioyo and defensive midfielder Joao Palhinha. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds, Fulham Odds and my betting predictions for their campaign. 

Fulham Futures Odds

• League Winner: +50000
• Top-Half Finish: +300
• Bottom-Half Finish: -500
• Relegation Odds: +550

Fulham Notable Permanent Additions

• Ryan Sessegnon, Wing Back (Tottenham Hotspur)
• Emile Smith-Rowe, Attacking Midfielder (Arsenal)
• Jorge Cuenca, Defender (Villarreal)

Fulham Prediction, 2024 Premier League

The odds say Fulham is more likely to finish 10th or better, but I predict they’re actually more likely to face relegation. 

Here’s the curious element about Fulham: they’re generally bad at creating expected goals, but they consistently hit the high-value targets of the goal mouth. 

Last year, manager Marco Silva’s side ranked 13th in non-penalty expected goals. However, they jumped to 10th in post-shot expected goals, per fbref.com. 

In 2022-23, they ranked 15th in non-penalty expected goals compared to ninth in psxG. 

While they haven’t necessarily lost any key attackers that would inform regression, the gap is still somewhat concerning. 

Additionally, Fulham have consistently run lucky. 

Over the last two seasons, they’ve posted a -4 goal differential compared to a -29.5 expected goal differential. 

Even in terms of post-shot expected goals, the Cottagers recorded a -2 goal differential, excluding own goals, compared to a -8.9 psxGDiff, per fbref.com. 

While the latter figures aren’t overly concerning, the two aforementioned defensive departures are great cause for concern. 

The reason? Fulham are terrible playing without a lead. 

Over the last two seasons, they have a -34.2 expected goal differential when tied or behind. That imputes a -0.55 expected goal differential per 90 minutes. 

Comparatively, they have a -7.78 expected goal differential with a lead. Under that scenario, they improve to a -0.42 xGDiff per 90 minutes, per understat.com. 

If the defensive departures lead to more deficits for Fulham, it’s easy to see a path where their offense regresses and find themselves amidst a relegation battle.