- The Red Sox are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Christopher Sale
- Watch the game on NESN
The Cleveland Guardians (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Sunday, April 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Guardians vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 13-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 14-14 ATS.
Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 +100 | +105 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -120 | -125 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 70.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Guardians vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+14.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+8.35 Units / 56% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 games (+8.15 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+15.40 Units / 55% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+11.50 Units / 72% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+10.10 Units / 101% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games at home (+9.30 Units / 116% ROI)
Red Sox vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Red Sox vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.25 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 away games (+1.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.35 Units / 5% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+9.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+4.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.55 Units / 24% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 11-16 against the Run Line (-4 Units / -12.56% ROI).
- 13-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.7 Units / -17.82% ROI
- 11-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.6 Units / -18.79% ROI
- 15-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.95 Units / 9.97% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 14-14 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -3.5% ROI).
- 14-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -1.68% ROI
- 19-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.1 Units / 29.84% ROI
- 9-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.4 Units / -39.62% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Allen has limited playing time.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 40% (8 SO in 20 PAs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 95th Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .418 (23-for-55) against Chris Sale this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .246 — second Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of just 11% (4/36) against Chris Sale when he’s behind in the count this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Chris Sale has allowed an OBP of .548 (31 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .307 — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Guardians are 20-66 (.233) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 14-69 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Guardians were 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Guardians are 4-9 (.308) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .125.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Red Sox are 8-11 (.421) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Red Sox are 44-26 (.629) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .548.
The Red Sox are just 6-13 (.316) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 2-11 (.154) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 929 strikeouts in 5,290 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 134 strikeouts in 706 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,325 strikeouts in 7,204 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have just 137 strikeouts in 727 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .354 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Red Sox are batting .272 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 13 of 247 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 101 of 1,707 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Guardians pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have allowed a run just 20% of the time after an opposing score this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (747.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.04.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 18 of 247 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have won 44% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D10
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Kenley Jansen (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- Sam D. Hentges (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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