- The Guardians are -125 favorites vs the White Sox
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber
- White Sox starting pitcher: Michael Lynn
- Watch the game on NBCS-CHI
The Cleveland Guardians (-125) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (+105) on Tuesday, May 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Chicago.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Guardians vs White Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 19-21 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 19-23 ATS.
Guardians vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 -115 | -125 |
| White Sox | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 -105 | +105 |
Guardians vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 67.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 39 games (+18.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 40 games (+16.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+10.45 Units / 80% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+10.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Eloy Jimenez has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Luis Robert has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- Luis Robert has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+9.15 Units / 76% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.60 Units / 31% ROI)
White Sox vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Tim Anderson | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
White Sox vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
White Sox vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Tim Anderson | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
White Sox vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
| Lance Lynn | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -115 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 24 games (+14.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 33 games (+14.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.05 Units / 10% ROI)
White Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+2.10 Units / 28% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 16-24 against the Run Line (-9.6 Units / -19.22% ROI).
- 19-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -16.42% ROI
- 13-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.4 Units / -32.76% ROI
- 25-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.85 Units / 24.6% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the White Sox have gone 19-23 against the Run Line (-7.1 Units / -13.04% ROI).
- 14-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.8 Units / -31.49% ROI
- 21-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.45 Units / 3.14% ROI
- 18-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.95 Units / -10.71% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 65% of the time (153/237) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has a strike rate of just 55% when ahead in the count (eighth lowest)– eighth Percentile and 76% when behind in the count this season (eighth highest among qualified SPs)– 91st Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .067 (1-for-15) against Shane Bieber on low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .265 — 98th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 74% of the time (301/408) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
9 of Lance Lynn’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
9 of Lance Lynn’s 24 breaking pitch strikeouts (38%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .471 (16-for-34) against Lance Lynn with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — first Percentile.
9 of Lance Lynn’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 97th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Guardians are 22-70 (.239) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Guardians are 16-74 (.178) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .089.
The Guardians are 22-48 (.314) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Guardians are 6-13 (.316) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The White Sox are just 5-21 (.192) when underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The White Sox are just 10-5 (.667) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The White Sox are just 8-5 (.615) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The White Sox are just 1-20 (.048) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .144.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 989 strikeouts in 5,558 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .342 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .344 against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .645 (1,496 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
White Sox hitters have drawn 360 walks in 6,055 PA’s (6%) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
White Sox hitters have 123 extra-base hits out of 386 total hits (just 32%) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
White Sox hitters have drawn 47 walks in 958 PA’s (5%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
White Sox hitters have an OPS of .763 (1,655 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 20 of 363 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 108 of 1,823 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Guardians pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against White Sox pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% against White Sox pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against White Sox pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .304 against White Sox pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
White Sox vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Billy Hamilton (White Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Liam Hendriks (White Sox): Illness, D15
- Yasmani Grandal (White Sox): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Matthew Foster (White Sox): Forearm, D60
- Eloy Jiménez (White Sox): Appendix, D10
- Elvis Andrus (White Sox): Oblique, D10
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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