- The White Sox are -150 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen
- White Sox starting pitcher: Dylan Cease
- Watch the game on NBCS-CHI
The Cleveland Guardians (+125) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (-150) on Thursday, May 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Chicago.
The White Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Guardians vs White Sox Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 19-23 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 21-23 ATS.
Guardians vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -175 | O 7.5 -115 | +125 |
| White Sox | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 -105 | -150 |
Guardians vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the White Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 41 games (+20.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 40 games (+16.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+10.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 32 games (+9.10 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+11.35 Units / 103% ROI)
- Luis Robert has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- Eloy Jimenez has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Luis Robert has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 68% ROI)
- Luis Robert has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+8.95 Units / 89% ROI)
White Sox vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Seby Zavala | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Tim Anderson | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
White Sox vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Seby Zavala | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Tim Anderson | 1.5 +140 | 1.5 -185 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
White Sox vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Seby Zavala | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tim Anderson | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
White Sox vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 35 games (+16.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 26 games (+13.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.00 Units / 32% ROI)
White Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+6.05 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+4.15 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games at home (+4.15 Units / 18% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 16-26 against the Run Line (-12.25 Units / -23.29% ROI).
- 19-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.05 Units / -19.79% ROI
- 14-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.4 Units / -29.1% ROI
- 25-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.75 Units / 21.01% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the White Sox have gone 21-23 against the Run Line (-4.6 Units / -8.06% ROI).
- 16-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.75 Units / -25.81% ROI
- 22-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.45 Units / 5.07% ROI
- 18-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.05 Units / -12.47% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (18/63) against Logan Allen this season — tied for 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 23% — seventh Percentile.
Logan Allen has located his fastball away 52% of the time (96/185) this season — tied for 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 93rd Percentile.
Logan Allen has thrown his changeup for a strike just 52% (43/83) of the time this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 60% — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (16/50) against Logan Allen this season — 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 43% — seventh Percentile.
White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 49% of the time (421/856) when behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has a strike rate of just 58% (175/304) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted just .163 (56-for-343) against Dylan Cease in 2022 — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 97th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has a strike rate of just 61% (546/888) this season — tied for 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 11th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Guardians are 16-76 (.174) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .089.
The Guardians are 22-72 (.234) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Guardians are 22-50 (.306) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Guardians are 24-26 (.480) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .348.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The White Sox are just 1-20 (.048) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .146.
The White Sox are just 12-5 (.706) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .854.
The White Sox are just 16-28 (.364) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The White Sox are just 15-22 (.405) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,006 strikeouts in 5,631 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .645 (2,101 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Guardians hitters have just 1,437 strikeouts in 7,732 PA’s (19%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
White Sox hitters have drawn 47 walks in 970 PA’s (5%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The White Sox have won just 20% of games in which they have scored first on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
White Sox hitters have drawn 362 walks in 6,132 PA’s (6%) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .480 (139 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 20 of 379 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 108 of 1,839 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 114 of 1,597 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against White Sox pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The White Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 78% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .300 against White Sox pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against White Sox pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
White Sox vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Billy Hamilton (White Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Liam Hendriks (White Sox): Illness, D15
- Matthew Foster (White Sox): Forearm, D60
- Eloy Jiménez (White Sox): Appendix, D10
- Elvis Andrus (White Sox): Oblique, D10
- Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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