Lakers vs Warriors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 04, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Warriors are -5.5 favorites vs. the Lakers
  • Total (Over/Under): 227.5 points
  • Thursday, May 4, 2023 at 9:00pm EDT
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Los Angeles Lakers visit Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EDT in San Francisco.

The Warriors are betting favorites in this NBA playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Lakers vs Warriors Over/Under is 226.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Lakers are 45-43 against the spread, while the Warriors are 42-47 against the spread.


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Lakers vs. Warriors Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Los Angeles Lakers+6.5 -110O 226.5 -110+220
Golden State Warriors -6.5 -110U 226.5 -110-275

Warriors vs Lakers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Warriors will win Thursday‘s game with 61.9% confidence.

Warriors vs Lakers Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Lakers will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Lakers and Warriors, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 78 games (+23.70 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have covered the 4Q Spread in 25 of their last 34 away games (+14.58 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 33 of their last 51 games (+13.64 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 away games (+11.80 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have covered the 3Q Spread in 19 of their last 26 away games (+11.01 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 59 of their last 95 games (+18.15 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the Spread in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+13.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+12.16 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 55 of their last 96 games (+10.65 Units / 10% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Lakers have gone 45-43 (-2.35 Units / -2.37% ROI).

  • 49-41 against the Moneyline (+14.75 Units / 9.75% ROI)
  • 46-43 against the Over for game total points (-1.3 Units / -1.31% ROI)
  • 43-46 against the Under for game total points (-7.6 Units / -7.68% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 42-47 (-9.7 Units / -9.8% ROI).

  • 48-42 against the Moneyline (-26.85 Units / -11.58% ROI)
  • 48-40 against the Over for game total points (+4 Units / 4.04% ROI)
  • 40-48 against the Under for game total points (-12.8 Units / -12.93% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 95 games (-30.45 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 89 games (-27.85 Units / -12% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 84 games (-27.77 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 37 games (-26.70 Units / -46% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 45 of their last 97 games (-25.12 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 78 games (-19.25 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only covered the 2Q Spread in 16 of their last 46 games (-17.06 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 46 games (-16.86 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 38 away games (-15.50 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Lakers have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 21 of their last 54 games (-15.10 Units / -26% ROI)

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Los Angeles Lakers: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Los Angeles Lakers are 9-24 (.273) when losing the rebounding margin this season — sixth-worst among NBA teams. The Memphis Grizzlies have averaged 55.5 rebounds per game (4,554 rebounds/82 games) this season — third-highest among NBA teams.

The Los Angeles Lakers are 35-57 (.380) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — eighth-worst among NBA teams. The Memphis Grizzlies have averaged 13.4 turnovers per game (2,198 turnovers/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — eighth-lowest among NBA teams.

The Lakers are 8-30 (.211) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .275

The Lakers are 35-57 (.380) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .452

Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Lakers

The Golden State Warriors are 6-23 (.207) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers this season — ninth-worst among NBA teams. The Sacramento Kings made 13.8 three-pointers per game this season — fifth-highest among NBA teams.

The Golden State Warriors are 63-23 (.733) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — ninth-best among NBA teams. The Sacramento Kings have averaged 50.5 rebounds per game (8,275 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — eighth-lowest among NBA teams.

The Warriors are 36-21 (.632) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .538

The Warriors are 2-22 (.083) when allowing an eFG of 60% or better since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .166

Injury Report: Warriors vs. LakersThursday‘s Game, May 4

  • Ryan Rollins (Warriors): The Warriors announced that Rollins has a Jones fracture in his right foot and will undergo surgery.
  • Patrick Baldwin Jr. (Warriors): Baldwin Jr. questionable for Thursday’s (May 4) game against the Lakers.
  • Andre Iguodala (Warriors): The Warriors announced that Iguodala underwent successful surgery on his left wrist Tuesday and will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
  • Mo Bamba (Lakers): Bamba is questionable for Thursday’s (May 4) game against Golden State.
  • Anthony Davis (Lakers): Davis is probable for Thursday’s (May 4) game against Golden State.
  • LeBron James (Lakers): James is probable for Thursday’s (May 4) game against Golden State.

Los Angeles Lakers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers have 26.6 free throw attempts per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.5

The Lakers have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.0 (304 assists/ 149 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.6

The Lakers have averaged 54.5 points in the paint per game (4,470 points/82 games) this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.5

The Lakers are shooting 47% (9,856/20,773) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have averaged 14.4 assists per game (1,181 assists/82 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.0

The Warriors have averaged 30.5 assists per game (1,250 assists/41 games) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

The Warriors have 20.2 free throw attempts per game this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.5

The Warriors have made 16.0 three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.6

Los Angeles Lakers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Lakers have averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,116 rebounds/82 games) this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Lakers have averaged 7.0 steals per game (1,152 steals/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Lakers have averaged 37.2 defensive rebounds per game (8,787 rebounds/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.9

The Lakers have averaged 37.4 defensive rebounds per game (6,135 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.7

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have averaged 36.6 defensive rebounds per game (2,999 rebounds/82 games) this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Warriors have averaged 8.0 steals per game (1,888 steals/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Warriors have 1,888 steals since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th most among NBA teams

The Warriors have averaged 37.2 defensive rebounds per game (6,100 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.