- The Diamondbacks are -150 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Miami Marlins (+125) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-150) on Wednesday, May 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Marlins vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 18-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 20-16 ATS.
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 -105 | +125 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -115 | -150 |
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 away games (+8.50 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 31 games (+8.40 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 22 games (+8.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.50 Units / 94% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+8.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- Gabriel Moreno has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 75% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
| Merrill Kelly | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -140 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 26 games (+3.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.25 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 37 games (+3.00 Units / 7% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+7.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 28 games (+6.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 33 games (+4.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.15 Units / 17% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 13-24 against the Run Line (-17.75 Units / -34.63% ROI).
- 18-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.45 Units / 1.11% ROI
- 15-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.05 Units / -19.78% ROI
- 21-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.5 Units / 11.04% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 20-16 against the Run Line (+3.3 Units / 7.23% ROI).
- 20-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.4 Units / 14.83% ROI
- 18-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.4 Units / 1.01% ROI
- 16-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.65 Units / -9.24% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 26 of 148 batters (18%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 59 of 439 batters (13%) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 17 of 59 batters (29%) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has a strike rate of just 58% (182/314) against right-handed batters this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has walked 13 of 76 right-handed batters (17%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has thrown low pitches 66% of the time (103/156) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 48% (49/102) against Merrill Kelly — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 36% (16/45) against Merrill Kelly on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 90th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Marlins are just 84-89 (.486) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Marlins are just 13-39 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
The Marlins are just 1-11 (.083) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Marlins are 47-6 (.887) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Diamondbacks are just 19-10 (.655) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Diamondbacks are just 82-7 (.921) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Diamondbacks are just 74-13 (.851) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Diamondbacks were just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .285 (1,605 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .628 (1,605 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .289 (3,301 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have 892 strikeouts in 3,301 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .209 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .299 (2,171 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Diamondbacks are batting .273 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 3% of PA’s since last season (197/7,311) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 4%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 74% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 22 of 408 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Ear Infection, D10
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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