The New York Mets (+140) visit CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches to take on the Houston Astros (-165) on Saturday, March 16, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in West Palm Beach, FL.
This season, the Mets are 8-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 9-7 ATS.
Mets vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Mets | +140 |
| Astros | -165 |
Mets vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s matchup with 55.7% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Starling Marte has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Tim Locastro has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+1.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+0.95 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Cesar Salazar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.55 Units / 96% ROI)
- Cesar Salazar has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 152 games (+17.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.98 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games (+2.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 51 of their last 87 games at home (+8.68 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.21 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 100 games (+4.60 Units / 4% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Mets are 9-8 against the Run Line (+1.2 Units / 5.86% ROI).
- 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.81 Units / -7.82% ROI
- 3-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.11 Units / -54.62% ROI
- 12-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.6 Units / 45.48% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Astros are 9-7 against the Run Line (+1.92 Units / 9.77% ROI).
- 9-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.05 Units / -4.34% ROI
- 7-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -6.86% ROI
- 7-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.7 Units / -4.12% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Tonkin allowed an OBP of just .240 (171 PA’s) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .307 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 18% (32/175) against Michael Tonkin with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 4th lowest among in NL; League Avg: 28% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 18% (32/175) against Michael Tonkin with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — fourth Percentile.
Michael Tonkin had a strike rate of 66% (408/614) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — 8th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 92nd Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters had a chase rate of just 21% (107/501) against J.P. France in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — first Percentile.
J.P. France had a strikeout rate of just 10% (12/120) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 16% (14/88) versus J.P. France with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 95th Percentile.
J.P. France threw his breaking pitches for a strike just 55% (290/528) of the time in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Mets are just 6-123 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Mets were just 2-72 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets were just 13-28 (.317) after a road loss in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Astros are 90-23 (.796) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Astros are 61-39 (.610) after a road win since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Astros are 79-47 (.627) after a loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Astros were 22-11 (.667) after a road loss in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .464.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Mets batted just .235 at home in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Mets won only 40% of their road games in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .343 (764 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters had an OPS of .809 (1,801 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
The Astros have a winning percentage of 63% on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Astros have won 87% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Astros hitters put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 140 of 1,412 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers won only 18% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Mets pitchers had a strike rate of just 62% in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Astros won just 24% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 3.62 (710.1 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
The Astros won 47% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Astros vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Back, Out
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, Out
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, Out
- Yacksel Rios (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
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