Mets vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 05, 2023, 10:46 AM
  • The Cardinals are -150 favorites vs the Mets
  • Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Jordan Montgomery
  • Watch the game on BSMW

The New York Mets (+125) visit Roger Dean Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-150) on Sunday, March 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Jupiter.

The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Mets vs Cardinals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Mets are 2-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 5-2 ATS.

Mets vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets+1.5 -150O 9.5 -110+125
Cardinals -1.5 +125U 9.5 -110-150

Mets vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 56.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Mets vs Cardinals and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Nick Plummer has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Nick Plummer has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Brett Baty has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Mark Vientos has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+1.40 Units / 35% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Nolan Gorman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Albert Pujols has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.40 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Paul DeJong has hit the Runs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 88 of their last 165 games (+18.75 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+13.95 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 165 games (+9.75 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 165 games (+7.27 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 67 games at home (+13.05 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 67 games at home (+13.00 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games at home (+9.50 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 96 games (+7.25 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+6.85 Units / 19% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 2-4 against the Run Line (-2.45 Units / -32.24% ROI).

  • 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.15 Units / -49.4% ROI
  • 5-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 61.54% ROI
  • 1-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.6 Units / -68.15% ROI

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 5-2 against the Run Line (+4.2 Units / 51.53% ROI).

  • 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.05 Units / 21.58% ROI
  • 3-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -4.43% ROI
  • 3-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.2 Units / -2.67% ROI

Kodai Senga is making his MLB debut today.

Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jordan Montgomery had a strike rate of just 62% (531/850) in two strike counts last season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — eighth Percentile.

Jordan Montgomery attempted to pick off a runner at second base 8 timeslast season — most among qualified SPs in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Jordan Montgomery threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 71% (366/513) of opposing batters last season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — 93rd Percentile.

Jordan Montgomery threw breaking pitches down 78% of the time (478/614) last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 95th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Mets are 89-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Mets are just 10-28 (.263) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Mets are 87-24 (.784) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Mets are 36-9 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Cardinals are 16-4 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cardinals are 47-11 (.810) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Cardinals are 49-9 (.845) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Cardinals are 71-4 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters struck out just 382 times in 1,923 PA’s (20%) against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

The Mets batted .259 last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .469 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .803 (2,611 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

Cardinals hitters have 260 extra-base hits out of 599 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters had an OPS of .808 (1,366 PA’s) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers walked 84 of 1,449 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 48% against Cardinals pitchers last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cardinals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • St. Louis Cardinals – No Injuries Reported
  • New York Mets – No Injuries Reported

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.