- The Cubs are -115 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
- Cubs starting pitcher: Kyle Hendricks
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets (-105) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-115) on Thursday, May 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Mets vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 25-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 27-21 ATS.
Mets vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -200 | O 8.5 -115 | -105 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +165 | U 8.5 -105 | -115 |
Mets vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Mets vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.35 Units / 50% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+9.20 Units / 57% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 22 games (+8.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.15 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 41 games (+16.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 14 games (+14.80 Units / 79% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Over in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 72% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+11.90 Units / 132% ROI)
Cubs vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Cubs vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Cubs vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Cubs vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +110 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 40 games (+3.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 32% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+8.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.70 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+8.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+6.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+5.90 Units / 21% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 17-33 against the Run Line (-19.3 Units / -31.15% ROI).
- 25-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.4 Units / -16.56% ROI
- 23-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -11.03% ROI
- 26-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 1.66% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 27-21 against the Run Line (+5.8 Units / 9.57% ROI).
- 22-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -8.16% ROI
- 25-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 1.14% ROI
- 22-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.75 Units / -10.87% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.497 (132 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: 1.059 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .491 (52-for-106) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: .340 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .711 (69 Total Bases / 97 ABs) on inside fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: .419 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .906 (96 Total Bases / 106 ABs) when behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: .596 — first Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Hendricks has an average fastball velocity of just 86.7 MPH since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 0 Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has allowed a slugging percentage of .548 (268 Total Bases / 489 ABs) vs left-handed batters since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: .393 — 0 Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has allowed an OPS of .939 (192 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: .699 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (73/262) against Kyle Hendricks since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Mets are just 0-22 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Mets are 111-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Mets are 7-78 (.082) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Mets are 39-18 (.684) after a loss as favorites since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .592.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Cubs are just 14-24 (.368) after a loss as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .592.
The Cubs are just 2-11 (.154) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Cubs are just 0-20 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Cubs are just 13-21 (.382) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in just 34% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Mets are batting .258 on the road since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Mets have scored first in just 31% of their road games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets hitters have just 1,092 strikeouts in 5,547 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have been successful in 100% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .356 (509 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.09 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .280 (1,057 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 58% of opposing batters this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .163 against Mets pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Mets pitchers have walked 187 of 1,867 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 6.43 (92.1 IP) over the last 14 days (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Cubs pitchers have walked 30 of 427 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Cubs pitchers over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .216 against Cubs pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Cubs vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D15
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- James Yacabonis (Mets): Quad, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Tomás Nido (Mets): Eye, D10
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