- The Mets are -115 favorites vs the Nationals
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
- Watch the game on MASN
The New York Mets (-115) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-105) on Friday, May 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mets vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 18-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 23-14 ATS.
Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -115 | -115 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -160 | U 9 -105 | -105 |
Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 59.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Mets vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 away games (+9.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.05 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.05 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+8.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.35 Units / 38% ROI)
Nationals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Peter Alonso | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Nationals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Peter Alonso | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Joey Meneses | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
Nationals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Peter Alonso | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Nationals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Gore | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Tylor Megill | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +120 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.20 Units / 65% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 31 games (+11.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+10.50 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games (+6.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.20 Units / 20% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 15-23 against the Run Line (-9.05 Units / -19.34% ROI).
- 18-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.6 Units / -21.65% ROI
- 16-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.35 Units / -17.48% ROI
- 21-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 8.06% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 23-14 against the Run Line (+7.65 Units / 17.06% ROI).
- 16-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.6 Units / 15.14% ROI
- 15-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.65 Units / -13.99% ROI
- 19-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.6 Units / 6.33% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 50% (58/117) of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Tylor Megill has a strike rate of just 55% (67/123) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 38% (47/123) against Tylor Megill when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 48% — second Percentile.
Tylor Megill has a strike rate of just 55% (82/148) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 40% (14 SO in 35 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 40% (16 SO in 40 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% (48/91) against MacKenzie Gore this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 90th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .147 (5 Total Bases / 34 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .364 — 97th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .107.
The Mets are 106-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Mets are just 9-14 (.391) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 6-73 (.076) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are just 32-67 (.323) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Nationals are just 20-36 (.357) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Nationals are just 1-118 (.008) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Nationals are just 13-68 (.160) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .335 (5,209 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Mets hitters have just 1,027 strikeouts in 5,209 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets have scored first in 66% of their home games since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have just 1,516 strikeouts in 7,642 PA’s (20%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals hitters have 73 extra-base hits out of 303 total hits (just 24%) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters have 78 extra-base hits out of 325 total hits (just 24%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.69 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .139 against Mets pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 57% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strike rate of just 61% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have walked 700 of 7,626 batters (9%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Jeimer Candelario (Nationals): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Chad Kuhl (Nationals): Foot, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- James Yacabonis (Mets): Quad, D15
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Neck, Day-to-Day
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
- Brooks Raley (Mets): Elbow, D15
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D10
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Elbow, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Tomás Nido (Mets): Eye, D10
Bet now on Mets vs Nationals and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
