- The Mets are -200 favorites vs the Nationals
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jacob Irvin
- Watch the game on MASN
The New York Mets (-200) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+165) on Sunday, May 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:35pm EDT in Washington.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Mets vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 19-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 24-14 ATS.
Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 -120 | O 9 -110 | -200 |
| Nationals | +1.5 +100 | U 9 -110 | +165 |
Mets vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 58.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 65% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+10.95 Units / 67% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+9.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.10 Units / 36% ROI)
Nationals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Nationals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Nationals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
Nationals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Irvin | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.20 Units / 66% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 32 games (+12.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+3.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.20 Units / 26% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 15-24 against the Run Line (-10.05 Units / -21.03% ROI).
- 19-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.6 Units / -19.51% ROI
- 16-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.45 Units / -19.58% ROI
- 22-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.35 Units / 10.2% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 24-14 against the Run Line (+8.65 Units / 18.66% ROI).
- 16-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.6 Units / 12.11% ROI
- 15-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.75 Units / -16.27% ROI
- 20-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.6 Units / 8.54% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (16/66) against Max Scherzer this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Max Scherzer has walked 11 of 351 right-handed batters (3%) since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 28% (55/195) against Max Scherzer since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .181 (40-for-221) against Max Scherzer versus the 2-3-4 hitters since last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .257 — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has pitched 10.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Nathan Eovaldi has the longest active streak at 29.1.
Jake Irvin has induced opposing hitters to ground into 4 double plays in 9 opportunities (44%) over the last 30 days (2 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 35% of Jake Irvin’s pitches (61/173) over the last 30 days (2 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 14% (6/44) against Jake Irvin — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 30% — second Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are 107-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Mets are 6-73 (.076) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Mets are 102-29 (.779) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Mets are just 9-14 (.391) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are just 32-68 (.320) at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Nationals are just 23-112 (.170) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Nationals are just 20-37 (.351) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 1-119 (.008) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have chased just 17% pitches with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets hitters have just 1,029 strikeouts in 5,230 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets have scored first in 66% of their home games since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Mets are batting .182 with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have 50 extra-base hits out of 223 total hits (just 22%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .280 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .441.
Nationals hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals hitters have just 63 strikeouts in 405 PA’s (16%) against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 57% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .142 against Mets pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Mets pitchers have a strike rate of just 61% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Chad Kuhl (Nationals): Foot, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- James Yacabonis (Mets): Quad, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
- Brooks Raley (Mets): Elbow, D15
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D10
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Elbow, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Tomás Nido (Mets): Eye, D10
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