- The Astros are -115 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Astros vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Astros / Blue Jays TV Channel: SCHN | RSN | TVA
The Houston Astros (-115) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-105) on Wednesday, July 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Astros are 43-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 38-47 ATS.
Astros vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Ronel Blanco 8-3, 2.50 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi 4-8, 4.20 ERA
Astros vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -115 | -115 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -105 | -105 |
Astros vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+13.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+10.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+10.25 Units / 205% ROI)
- Alejandro Kirk has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.65 Units / 30% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 68 games (+15.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games (+12.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.45 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games (+8.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 42% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 84 games (+9.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+8.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+5.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 35% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 42-43 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 43-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.55 Units / -9.64% ROI
- 32-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.3 Units / -23.99% ROI
- 50-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.9 Units / 15.82% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 38-47 against the Run Line (-18 Units / -15.81% ROI).
- 39-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.35 Units / -13.05% ROI
- 40-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.3 Units / -6.75% ROI
- 42-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.25 Units / -2.4% ROI
Blue Jays vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Blue Jays vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Spencer Horwitz (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ernie Clement (TOR) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Blue Jays vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Blue Jays vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronel Blanco (HOU) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -115 |
| Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .217 (30-for-138) against Ronel Blanco in non-two strike counts this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .317 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (45/109) against Ronel Blanco on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Ronel Blanco has allowed a BABIP of .184 this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .282 — 100th Percentile.
Ronel Blanco has walked 21 of 136 batters (15%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed a slugging percentage of .689 (31 Total Bases / 45 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .355 — seventh Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .312 (43-for-138) against Yusei Kikuchi when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — fourth Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has thrown breaking pitches 49% of the time (438/888) when behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed an OBP of .362 (152 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — sixth Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Astros are 169-25 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Astros are 120-83 (.591) on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .472.
The Astros are 192-20 (.906) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Astros are 68-51 (.571) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Blue Jays are 28-23 (.549) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Blue Jays are just 14-64 (.179) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Blue Jays are 24-12 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Blue Jays are 4-2 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 799 strikeouts in 4,568 PA’s (17%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Astros hitters have put 42% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 643 strikeouts in 3,343 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 397 strikeouts in 2,104 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 949 strikeouts in 5,077 PA’s (19%) in righty-righty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Blue Jays are batting .260 against LHP since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 26% against Astros pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers this season is 389.4 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 397.2
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have walked 26 of 227 batters (12%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 245 of 3,652 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Blue Jays vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Erik Swanson (Toronto Blue Jays): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Romano (Toronto Blue Jays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Danny Jansen (Toronto Blue Jays): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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