- The Astros are -110 favorites vs the Mariners
- Astros vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Astros / Mariners TV Channel: SCHN | RTNW
The Houston Astros (-110) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-110) on Tuesday, April 8, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Astros are 4-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 4-7 ATS.
Astros vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez 1-1, 3.86 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 0-0, 8.11 ERA
Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +165 | O 7 -115 | -110 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -200 | U 7 -105 | -110 |
Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Altuve has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+24.00 Units / 400% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+12.65 Units / 62% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.35 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Dylan Moore has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+11.50 Units / 288% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+9.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 games (+9.55 Units / 159% ROI)
- Ryan Bliss has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+6.45 Units / 129% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+21.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 51 games (+16.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 124 games (+14.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 105 games (+13.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.20 Units / 17% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 58 games (+14.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 71 games at home (+10.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+8.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+7.60 Units / 17% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 4-6 against the Run Line (-2.65 Units / -18.79% ROI).
- 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -24.78% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -24.44% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 15.35% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 4-7 against the Run Line (-3.7 Units / -25.43% ROI).
- 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.05 Units / -33.22% ROI
- 3-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -30.17% ROI
- 6-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 22.22% ROI
Mariners vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Mariners vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Mariners vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Mariners vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez (HOU) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
| Luis Castillo (SEA) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -118 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (305/502) against Framber Valdez since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez located 42% of his pitches inside (302/710) with two-strikes in the 2024 season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 61% (291/473) against Framber Valdez in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters had a groundball rate of 67% (77/115) against Framber Valdez when he was behind in the count in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has a first-pitch strike rate of 80% (39/49) this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has a strike rate of just 52% (33/64) in two strike counts this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of just .248 (395 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .287 — 92nd Percentile.
Luis Castillo threw fastballs 61% of the time (639/1,043) with two-strikes in 2023 — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 12-23 (.343) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 95-70 (.576) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Astros were 65-10 (.867) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners were 18-1 (.947) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .809.
The Mariners were 10-56 (.152) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mariners are 153-3 (.981) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mariners are just 16-26 (.381) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters are slugging just .125 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters are averaging 4.60 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Astros hitters have chased 60% of pitches out of the zone in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .210 at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Mariners batted just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mariners are batting just .225 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Mariners are batting just .204 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 82 of 1,541 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers walked 369 of 5,801 batters (6%) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 406 of 6,228 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers walked 76 of 1,441 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
More MLB Reading:
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