- The Mariners are -145 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Astros / Mariners TV Channel: SCHN | RTNW | ESPN+
The Houston Astros (+115) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-135) on Thursday, May 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Astros are 24-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 29-28 ATS.
Astros vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti 2-5, 7.00 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert 3-2, 3.09 ERA
Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -185 | O 7.5 -125 | +115 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +150 | U 7.5 +105 | -135 |
Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 29 games (+21.15 Units / 73% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Under in 33 of his last 41 games (+20.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 38 games (+16.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+15.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 43 games (+14.65 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 games (+15.40 Units / 103% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Dominic Canzone has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.45 Units / 25% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 away games (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+9.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+0.35 Units / 1% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+14.25 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+11.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+8.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.55 Units / 35% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 22-34 against the Run Line (-12.75 Units / -19.12% ROI).
- 24-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.5 Units / -23.07% ROI
- 21-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.7 Units / -22.44% ROI
- 32-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.85 Units / 14.22% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 29-28 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -3.54% ROI).
- 31-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.21% ROI
- 20-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.9 Units / -27.75% ROI
- 34-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.5 Units / 18.4% ROI
Mariners vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Mariners vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +210 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Mariners vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert (SEA) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
| Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Arrighetti has allowed an OBP of .500 (48 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: .313 — 0 Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has allowed an OPS of 1.111 (48 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: .717 — second Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has a strike rate of just 60% (118/196) — tied for 4th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 66% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .419 (18 GB hits out of 43 GBs) against Spencer Arrighetti this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: .239 — 0 Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .242 (385 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .297 — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has struck out 31% (41/131) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 93rd Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has induced opposing hitters to ground into 9 double plays in 36 opportunities (25%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 31% (53/169) against Logan Gilbert this season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 93rd Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 112-77 (.593) on the road since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .475.
The Astros are 47-31 (.603) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .461.
The Astros are 157-22 (.877) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Astros are 30-25 (.545) after a road win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 161-6 (.964) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Mariners are 93-5 (.949) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mariners are 55-9 (.859) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
The Mariners are 95-15 (.864) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 753 strikeouts in 4,301 PA’s (17%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 432 strikeouts in 2,451 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,972/14,440 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters are slugging .490 in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .360.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have 9 extra-base hits out of 54 total hits (just 17%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Mariners hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mariners are batting just .156 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have won 38% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 1,003 of 14,022 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .239 (503 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 2.62 (254.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.86.
Mariners pitchers have walked 556 of 8,036 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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