- The Astros are -115 favorites vs the Mets
- Astros vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Astros / Mets TV Channel: WPIX | SCHN
The Houston Astros (-115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-105) on Saturday, June 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Astros are 40-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 39-40 ATS.
Astros vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez 6-5, 3.70 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 2-4, 4.82 ERA
Astros vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -115 | -115 |
| Mets | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -105 | -105 |
Astros vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+15.75 Units / 72% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+11.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 64 games (+17.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 38 away games (+9.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+8.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.45 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.50 Units / 62% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 70 games (+13.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 20 games (+12.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+10.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+9.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.15 Units / 28% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 38-43 against the Run Line (-4.3 Units / -4.44% ROI).
- 40-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.55 Units / -11.75% ROI
- 29-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.25 Units / -27.45% ROI
- 49-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +17 Units / 18.9% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 39-40 against the Run Line (-3.55 Units / -3.41% ROI).
- 40-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -0.67% ROI
- 40-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.45 Units / 1.7% ROI
- 35-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.35 Units / -9.95% ROI
Mets vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Mets vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Mets vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana (NYM) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
| Ronel Blanco (HOU) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (147/233) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 63% (128/203) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .292 (176 Total Bases / 603 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .383 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (101/159) against Framber Valdez in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (389/717) since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
The last hit on a Tylor Megill curveball was August 16th, 2023. Hitters are 0 for their last 22 in ABs ending on his curveball. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents are hitting .403 (127-for-315) against Tylor Megill in non-two strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: .333 — first Percentile.
The average home run distance against Tylor Megill since the 2022 season is 416.1 feet — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 398.3
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Astros are 109-30 (.784) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Astros are 67-52 (.563) on the road since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .474.
The Astros are 19-18 (.514) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Astros are 236-169 (.583) since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mets are 5-30 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Mets are just 27-10 (.730) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .892.
The Mets are just 32-6 (.842) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Mets are 13-161 (.075) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers this season is 388.9 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 397.0
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have walked 295 of 3,061 batters (10%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 307 of 3,036 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 69 of 711 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have walked 209 of 2,123 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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