- The Mets are -155 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Mets Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Astros / Mets TV Channel: WPIX | SCHN | ESPN+
The Houston Astros (+115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-135) on Sunday, June 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Astros are 41-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 39-41 ATS.
Astros vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Shawn Dubin 1-1, 5.73 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 5-2, 3.28 ERA
Astros vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -165 | O 9 -120 | +115 |
| Mets | -1.5 +140 | U 9 +100 | -135 |
Astros vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+14.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+15.75 Units / 72% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+11.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games (+16.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+9.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 39 away games (+8.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.45 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.50 Units / 45% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 71 games (+14.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 32 games (+10.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+9.00 Units / 30% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 39-43 against the Run Line (-3.3 Units / -3.34% ROI).
- 41-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.55 Units / -10.78% ROI
- 30-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.25 Units / -25.95% ROI
- 49-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +16 Units / 17.59% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 39-41 against the Run Line (-4.55 Units / -4.33% ROI).
- 40-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -1.93% ROI
- 41-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.45 Units / 2.82% ROI
- 35-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.35 Units / -11.01% ROI
Mets vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| DJ Stewart (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Mets vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Mets vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shawn Dubin has a first-pitch strike rate of just 48% (49/101) this season — lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (20/34) against Shawn Dubin this season — tied for 8th highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 44% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .299 (26-for-87) against Shawn Dubin this season — 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — fourth Percentile.
Shawn Dubin has a strike rate of just 61% (249/409) this season — tied for 10th lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 64% — 11th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (44/264) against Luis Severino this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 14% (18/130) against Luis Severino this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino has walked 13 of 135 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (35/216) against Luis Severino on pitches in the strike zone this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Astros are just 2-6 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 118-82 (.590) on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Astros are just 9-37 (.196) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Astros are just 0-31 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mets are just 27-10 (.730) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .892.
The Mets are just 32-6 (.842) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Mets are 5-30 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Mets are just 31-33 (.484) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 799 strikeouts in 4,568 PA’s (17%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (2,140/15,409 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters have just 478 strikeouts in 2,718 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.67 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging 1.135 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .613.
The Mets are batting .276 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have an OPS of 1.053 (203 PA’s) over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .336 (871 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Astros have allowed 3.78 runs per game (759/201) on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 905 of 9,165 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 314 of 3,081 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 71 of 720 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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