- Astros / Mets TV Channel: SNY | MLBN
The Houston Astros (+100) visit Clover Park to take on the New York Mets (-120) on Wednesday, March 13, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Port St. Lucie, FL.
This season, the Astros are 8-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 8-6 ATS.
Astros vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Astros | +100 |
| Mets | -120 |
Astros vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 52.4% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Cesar Salazar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.55 Units / 96% ROI)
- Cesar Salazar has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 away games (+3.40 Units / 170% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Starling Marte has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 84 away games (+23.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 84 away games (+16.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 60 away games (+16.18 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 51 away games (+13.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 78 games at home (+18.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Astros are 7-6 against the Run Line (+0.77 Units / 4.79% ROI).
- 8-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 3.26% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.05 Units / -13.87% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.47 Units / 3.4% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Mets are 8-6 against the Run Line (+2.2 Units / 12.95% ROI).
- 7-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.26 Units / -6.65% ROI
- 1-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.11 Units / -72.33% ROI
- 11-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.85 Units / 63.71% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 26% (119/459) against Cristian Javier in the 2023 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Hitters swung at 37% of Cristian Javier’s non-fastballs (447/1,199) in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of just 20% (38/194) against Cristian Javier in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Cristian Javier elevated 51% of his pitches (353/699) when ahead in the count in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino had an ERA of 8.14 (48.2 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.42 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .341 (73-for-214) against Luis Severino on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .256 — first Percentile.
Luis Severino allowed a slugging percentage of .450 (103 Total Bases / 229 ABs) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .310 — first Percentile.
Left-handed batters hit .333 (61-for-183) against Luis Severino in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .250 — second Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Astros are 90-23 (.796) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Astros are 61-39 (.610) after a road win since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Astros are 79-47 (.627) after a loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Astros were 22-11 (.667) after a road loss in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .464.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Mets are just 6-123 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Mets were just 2-72 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets were just 13-28 (.317) after a road loss in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters had an OPS of .809 (1,801 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
The Astros have a winning percentage of 63% on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Astros have won 87% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Astros hitters put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Mets batted just .235 at home in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Mets won only 40% of their road games in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .343 (764 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Astros won just 24% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 3.62 (710.1 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
The Astros won 47% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers walked 140 of 1,412 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 591 of 6,084 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers won only 18% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Mets pitchers had a strike rate of just 62% in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, Out
- Yacksel Rios (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, Out
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Back, Out
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, Out
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
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