- The Orioles are -160 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Orioles Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Astros / Orioles TV Channel: FOX
The Houston Astros (+135) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-160) on Thursday, August 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08pm EDT in Baltimore, MD.
This season, the Astros are 68-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 70-58 ATS.
Astros vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti 5-11, 5.26 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes 12-5, 3.11 ERA
Astros vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -155 | O 8 -105 | +135 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +125 | U 8 -115 | -160 |
Astros vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 59.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 22 away games (+42.90 Units / 195% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 50 games (+20.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+15.55 Units / 60% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+12.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.75 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Holliday has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+24.10 Units / 121% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 34 games (+20.65 Units / 51% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 32 games (+15.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+13.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 43 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 109 games (+18.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 68 games (+13.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 53 games (+12.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.35 Units / 71% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 66 of their last 119 games (+21.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 81 games (+13.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 66 of their last 113 games (+11.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 53 games (+5.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.50 Units / 25% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 63-63 against the Run Line (+1.1 Units / 0.71% ROI).
- 68-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.7 Units / -4.24% ROI
- 50-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -29.55 Units / -21.46% ROI
- 73-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.75 Units / 12.7% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 70-58 against the Run Line (+21.3 Units / 14.21% ROI).
- 74-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 0.38% ROI
- 69-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +16.8 Units / 12.08% ROI
- 48-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -28.15 Units / -20.06% ROI
Orioles vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Orioles vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Orioles vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Orioles vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes (BAL) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -105 |
| Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Arrighetti has a strikeout rate of 52% (14 SO in 27 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has struck out 50% (23/46) of left-handed batters he faced this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has allowed a slugging percentage of .733 (33 Total Bases / 45 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .409 — second Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has allowed an OPS of 1.076 (187 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .758 — first Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 66% of the time (301/459) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 65% of the time (452/695) since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 68% of the time (469/695) since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 69% of the time (137/197) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Astros are just 0-44 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Astros are just 10-20 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 78-53 (.595) after a road win since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Astros are just 3-10 (.231) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Orioles are 58-46 (.558) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Orioles are 200-15 (.930) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .866.
The Orioles are 19-11 (.633) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 32-26 (.552) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (2,402/17,071 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Astros hitters have just 891 strikeouts in 4,964 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
16% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (741/4,764 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters are slugging .452 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .786 (1,550 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .687.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .769 (3,067 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
Orioles hitters have put just 36% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Astros have allowed 3.78 runs per game (846/224) on the road since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
Astros pitchers have walked 986 of 10,826 batters (9%) since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
The Orioles have won 44% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Orioles pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .211 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Orioles vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathan Heasley (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Danny Coulombe (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tyler Wells (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jorge Mateo (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros): Lower Leg, 10-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Cristian Javier (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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