- The Padres are -140 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Astros / Padres TV Channel: SCHN | PDTV | MLBN
The Houston Astros (+105) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-125) on Monday, September 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Astros are 81-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 75-75 ATS.
Astros vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti 7-12, 4.76 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish 5-3, 3.54 ERA
Astros vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -210 | O 8 -115 | +105 |
| Padres | -1.5 +170 | U 8 -105 | -125 |
Astros vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 away games (+38.40 Units / 154% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 46 games (+16.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+13.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ben Gamel has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+13.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+11.90 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 40 games (+31.40 Units / 79% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 32 games (+18.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 48 games (+14.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 32 games (+13.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 43 games (+12.95 Units / 29% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 91 games (+18.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 76 of their last 132 games (+17.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 76 games (+11.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 63 of their last 113 games (+7.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 55 games (+5.30 Units / 8% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 73 games (+16.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 72 games (+13.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+6.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 118 games (+5.77 Units / 4% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 42 games at home (+2.75 Units / 6% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 76-73 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 3.37% ROI).
- 81-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.9 Units / -4.09% ROI
- 61-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.68 Units / -18.85% ROI
- 84-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.4 Units / 9.92% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 75-75 against the Run Line (+2.67 Units / 1.44% ROI).
- 85-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.7 Units / 2.33% ROI
- 81-66 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.95 Units / 5.46% ROI
- 66-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.95 Units / -14.39% ROI
Padres vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Padres vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Padres vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Padres vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Yu Darvish (SD) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -120 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Arrighetti has allowed a slugging percentage of .688 (33 Total Bases / 48 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: .403 — second Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has allowed an OPS of 1.046 (221 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: .757 — 0 Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has walked 30 of 221 batters (14%) versus the top of the order this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has a strikeout rate of 51% (74 SO in 144 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 97th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 50% of the time (323/643) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total SL; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .146 (28-for-192) against Yu Darvish on fastballs away since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: .240 — 99th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown breaking pitches 57% of the time (364/643) when behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .229 (44 Total Bases / 192 ABs) on fastballs away since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: .375 — 98th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Astros are just 10-22 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are just 3-12 (.200) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are just 0-51 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Astros are just 4-10 (.286) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Padres are 124-21 (.855) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Padres are 60-4 (.938) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Padres are 19-45 (.297) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .197.
The Padres are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 944 strikeouts in 5,211 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
15% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (876/5,648 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (2,537/17,955 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 253 strikeouts in 1,510 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .500 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres hitters have just 733 strikeouts in 4,159 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 4 strikeouts in 39 PA’s (10%) against LHP this month (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.52 (2071.1 IP) on the road since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers this season is 387.8 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 397.5
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have walked 14 of 109 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- San Diego Padres – No Injuries Reported
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
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