- The Astros are +100 favorites vs the Padres
- Astros vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Astros / Padres TV Channel: SCHN | PDTV | truT
The Houston Astros (+100) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-120) on Tuesday, September 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Astros are 81-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 76-75 ATS.
Astros vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown 11-8, 3.61 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 12-9, 3.08 ERA
Astros vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +170 | O 7.5 -125 | +100 |
| Padres | +1.5 -210 | U 7.5 +105 | -120 |
Astros vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 24 away games (+29.40 Units / 123% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 47 games (+15.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Hunter Brown has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 48 games (+12.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Hunter Brown has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.10 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 41 games (+36.50 Units / 89% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 33 games (+19.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+15.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 33 games (+15.05 Units / 43% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 25 of his last 44 games (+14.40 Units / 32% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 133 games (+18.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 92 games (+16.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 77 games (+10.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 74 games (+17.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 73 games (+12.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 62 of their last 119 games (+7.47 Units / 5% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 51 games (+7.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.50 Units / 25% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 76-74 against the Run Line (+4.1 Units / 2.24% ROI).
- 81-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.9 Units / -4.53% ROI
- 61-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.88 Units / -19.44% ROI
- 85-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.4 Units / 10.46% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 76-75 against the Run Line (+4.37 Units / 2.35% ROI).
- 86-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.7 Units / 2.81% ROI
- 81-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.75 Units / 4.69% ROI
- 67-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.95 Units / -13.71% ROI
Padres vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -1200 |
Padres vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Padres vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael King (SD) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
| Hunter Brown (HOU) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .121 (41-for-338) against Hunter Brown with two-strikes this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 — 94th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .279 (79-for-283) against Hunter Brown this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — fifth Percentile.
Hunter Brown has allowed an OBP of .340 (309 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — third Percentile.
Hunter Brown has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.1 MPH (435 batted balls) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.7 — 98th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.3 MPH (407 batted balls) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.7 — 100th Percentile.
Michael King has a strikeout rate of 34% (88 SO in 261 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.9 MPH since last season (670 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 89.1
Michael King has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.3 MPH this season (407 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 88.9
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Astros are just 10-22 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are just 4-10 (.286) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Astros are just 3-12 (.200) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are just 0-52 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Padres are 27-19 (.587) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are 27-19 (.587) after a road win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Padres are 71-57 (.555) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Padres are 124-21 (.855) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.64 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have put 42% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Astros hitters are slugging .496 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .371.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 255 strikeouts in 1,518 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .515 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Padres are batting .279 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have just 737 strikeouts in 4,186 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (4223.2 IP) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (7,610 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- San Diego Padres – No Injuries Reported
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
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