- The Astros are -130 favorites vs the Pirates
- Astros vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Astros / Pirates TV Channel: SCHN | SNPT
The Houston Astros (-130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) on Wednesday, June 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA, PA.
This season, the Astros are 33-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 26-35 ATS.
Astros vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Ryan Gusto 3-2, 4.54 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Michael Burrows 0-1, 8.65 ERA
Astros vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +125 | O 9 +100 | -130 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -150 | U 9 -120 | +110 |
Astros vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 57.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 away games (+21.90 Units / 438% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+11.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+10.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- Spencer Horwitz has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+9.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.20 Units / 22% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 23 away games (+11.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 52 games (+10.42 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+10.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.85 Units / 21% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+12.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 26 games at home (+12.15 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 60 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+3.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.85 Units / 20% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 32-28 against the Run Line (+5.77 Units / 7.56% ROI).
- 33-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 1.1% ROI
- 24-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.35 Units / -20.26% ROI
- 34-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.55 Units / 11.4% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 26-35 against the Run Line (-16.25 Units / -20.57% ROI).
- 22-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.3 Units / -19.69% ROI
- 23-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.15 Units / -22.63% ROI
- 35-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.9 Units / 14.72% ROI
Pirates vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Alexander Canario (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Pirates vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Caratini (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
Pirates vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Pirates vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Burrows (PIT) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -118 |
| Ryan Gusto (HOU) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Gusto has allowed an OPS of .946 (89 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: .730 — seventh Percentile.
Ryan Gusto has walked 15% of left-handed batters this season — 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 9% — ninth Percentile.
67% of Ryan Gusto’s fastball strikeouts are located away this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 98th Percentile.
Ryan Gusto has walked 13% of opponent 7-8-9 hitters this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Burrows has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to September 28th, 2024 — the longest active streak is 6.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are 19-7 (.731) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Astros were just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 83-13 (.865) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .807.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 2-12 (.143) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .375.
The Pirates are just 12-44 (.214) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have put just 29% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
15% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances lasted only one pitch (926/6,107 PA’s) in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.
Astros hitters have struck out in just 19% of it’s PA’s against LHP since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have struck out in 35% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .679 (10,363 PA’s) against RHP since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .373 against RHP since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 39% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 52% of the time since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Pirates have won just 13% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
More MLB Reading:
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