- The Astros are -145 favorites vs the Pirates
- Astros vs Pirates Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Astros / Pirates TV Channel: SCHN | SNPT
The Houston Astros (-145) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) on Thursday, June 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Astros are 33-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 27-35 ATS.
Astros vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez 5-4, 3.16 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 1-7, 3.73 ERA
Astros vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +115 | O 7.5 -115 | -145 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -140 | U 7.5 -105 | +120 |
Astros vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 59.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+20.90 Units / 348% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+14.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+12.40 Units / 55% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+11.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+11.90 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+10.15 Units / 52% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.20 Units / 30% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 24 away games (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+11.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 53 games (+9.42 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games (+9.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 26 games (+5.55 Units / 17% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+13.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games (+12.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games (+4.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+3.95 Units / 26% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 32-29 against the Run Line (+4.77 Units / 6.17% ROI).
- 33-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.45 Units / -0.57% ROI
- 24-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.5 Units / -21.63% ROI
- 35-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.55 Units / 12.71% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 27-35 against the Run Line (-15.25 Units / -18.96% ROI).
- 23-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.2 Units / -17.8% ROI
- 23-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.3 Units / -23.94% ROI
- 36-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.9 Units / 15.96% ROI
Pirates vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Alexander Canario (PIT) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Victor Caratini (HOU) | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jacob Melton (HOU) | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -1400 |
Pirates vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Victor Caratini (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Pirates vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez (HOU) | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (414/680) against Framber Valdez since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 61% (291/473) against Framber Valdez in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez located 42% of his pitches inside (302/710) with two-strikes in the 2024 season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 65% (110/169) against Framber Valdez when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .314 (77-for-245) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller allowed an OBP of .364 (272 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller allowed an OPS of .927 (274 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .671 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller allowed a slugging percentage of .563 (138 Total Bases / 245 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — first Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 1-81 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Astros were just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 19-7 (.731) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .489.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Pirates are just 2-12 (.143) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .373.
The Pirates are just 9-63 (.125) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 6-15 (.286) after a win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have struck out in 67% of it’s PA’s against LHP over the past seven days (1 game) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Astros hitters have put just 29% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Astros hitters have an OPS of 1.078 (17 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .655.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .660 (6,225 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .373 against RHP since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .340 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .680 (10,386 PA’s) against RHP since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 3.62 (710.1 IP) on the road in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 52% of the time since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 51% of the time since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
The Pirates have won just 13% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
More MLB Reading:
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