- The Astros are -140 favorites vs the Royals
- Astros vs Royals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Astros / Royals TV Channel: FS1 | SCHN | FDKC
The Houston Astros (-140) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+120) on Saturday, April 26, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO, MO.
This season, the Astros are 13-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 11-16 ATS.
Astros vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez 1-2, 4.56 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 0-3, 4.16 ERA
Astros vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +125 | O 7.5 +100 | -140 |
| Royals | +1.5 -155 | U 7.5 -120 | +120 |
Astros vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+12.35 Units / 52% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+11.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+10.95 Units / 64% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Massey has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 20 games at home (+17.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+15.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games at home (+9.00 Units / 150% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 25 games (+8.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+8.05 Units / 33% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.60 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.65 Units / 31% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games (+10.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.60 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games (+6.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+3.85 Units / 28% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 14-11 against the Run Line (+4.25 Units / 12.84% ROI).
- 13-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
- 8-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.35 Units / -30.53% ROI
- 15-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.15 Units / 22.2% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 11-16 against the Run Line (-9.9 Units / -25.95% ROI).
- 13-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.65 Units / -4.9% ROI
- 9-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.3 Units / -31.74% ROI
- 17-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.1 Units / 23.59% ROI
Royals vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
Royals vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jake Meyers (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Mark Canha (KC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
Royals vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Royals vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez (HOU) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -140 |
| Michael Wacha (KC) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 61% (291/473) against Framber Valdez in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (333/553) against Framber Valdez since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
7 of Framber Valdez’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among among AL Starters; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
7 of Framber Valdez’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — tied for most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
75% of Michael Wacha’s strikeouts are in the zone this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — 98th Percentile.
Michael Wacha threw his breaking pitches for a strike just 47% (212/452) of the time in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters swung at 28% of Michael Wacha’s breaking pitches (128/452) in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents batted just .188 (45-for-239) against Michael Wacha when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 93rd Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 1-67 (.015) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Astros were just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are just 13-23 (.361) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Royals are just 4-58 (.065) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .193.
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 22-67 (.247) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .375.
The Royals are just 1-6 (.143) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Astros (10th best runs scored) today.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Astros are batting .333 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,850/13,252 PA’s) since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .580 (649 PA’s) against RHP this month (22 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Royals have won 100% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals have won just 47% of games in which they have scored first on the road since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .611 (952 PA’s) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Royals pitchers have struck out in the zone 59% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 21% in 2023 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers had an ERA of 5.39 (674.0 IP) on the road in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
More MLB Reading:
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